Research on CCUS investment decision of coal-fired power plant under different business modes

NIE Pengfei; GAO Zheyuan; WANG Xiping

doi:10.19666/j.rlfd.202211274

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Research on CCUS investment decision of coal-fired power plant under different business modes

更新时间：2025-09-28

- Research on CCUS investment decision of coal-fired power plant under different business modes
- Thermal Power Generation Vol. 52, Issue 4, Pages: 63-71(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河北大唐国际王滩发电有限责任公司
  2. 大唐国际发电股份有限公司
  3. 华北电力大学经济管理系
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19666/j.rlfd.202211274
  CLC： F426.21;F426.61;X701;F832.5
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
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NIE Pengfei, GAO Zheyuan, WANG Xiping. Research on CCUS investment decision of coal-fired power plant under different business modes[J]. Thermal power generation, 2023, 52(4): 63-71.
DOI：

NIE Pengfei, GAO Zheyuan, WANG Xiping. Research on CCUS investment decision of coal-fired power plant under different business modes[J]. Thermal power generation, 2023, 52(4): 63-71. DOI： 10.19666/j.rlfd.202211274.

摘要

准确测算碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）的投资价值和投资时机是燃煤电厂CCUS投资决策的关键。针对以往研究仅仅关注一体化模式下CCUS投资决策这一不足，基于实物期权理论，考虑碳价格不确定性及CCUS投资成本递减情况下CCUS投资的期权价值，从燃煤电厂视角建立了一体化模式和合资模式下CCUS的投资决策模型，并通过模型求解得到不同模式下燃煤电厂CCUS投资的期权价值和投资时机。基于此模型，进一步通过算例分析了额外电力配额、电价补贴、投资补贴等不同政策激励及碳价波动对CCUS投资决策的影响，并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。

Abstract

Measuring the investment value and investment timing accurately is crucial for coal-fired power plants' carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS) investment. Different from the existing studies on the CCUS decision making only considering the integration mode

this study establishes the decision-making model of the CCUS investment of coal-fired power plants under the integration mode and joint venture mode from the perspective of coal-fired power plants. The decision-making model is established based on the theory of real options

considering the uncertainties of carbon price and the decreasing CCUS investment cost

and the displayed solutions of the option value and investment timing of CCUS investment in coal-fired power plants under different modes are obtained by solving the model. Based on this model

the impact of different policy incentives such as additional power quota

electricity price subsidy

investment subsidy

and carbon price volatility on CCUS investment decisions are further analyzed through numerical examples. On this basis

some policy suggestions are provided finally.

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