Comprehensive Analysis and Discussion on Transition Paths of China's Power System Towards Carbon Neutrality—Part I: System Modeling and Path Designs

Xiaoxin Zhou; Yuqiong Zhang; Ziwei Chen; Honghua Yang; Jiameng Gao; Qiang Zhao

doi:10.17775/CSEEJPES.2025.05010

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Comprehensive Analysis and Discussion on Transition Paths of China's Power System Towards Carbon Neutrality—Part I: System Modeling and Path Designs

Special Issue Commemorating the 10<sup>th</sup> Anniversary of CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems | 更新时间：2026-10-16

- Comprehensive Analysis and Discussion on Transition Paths of China's Power System Towards Carbon Neutrality—Part I: System Modeling and Path Designs
- CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems Vol. 11, Issue 6, Pages: 2810-2820(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing,China
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.17775/CSEEJPES.2025.05010
  CLC：
- Published：01 November 2025
- 稿件说明：
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Xiaoxin Zhou, Yuqiong Zhang, Ziwei Chen, et al. Comprehensive Analysis and Discussion on Transition Paths of China's Power System Towards Carbon Neutrality—Part I: System Modeling and Path Designs[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(6): 2810-2820.
DOI：

Xiaoxin Zhou, Yuqiong Zhang, Ziwei Chen, et al. Comprehensive Analysis and Discussion on Transition Paths of China's Power System Towards Carbon Neutrality—Part I: System Modeling and Path Designs[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(6): 2810-2820. DOI： 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2025.05010.

摘要

Abstract

The low-carbon transition of China's power system is the key to achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. This study proposes a set of methods for comprehensive analysis and comparison of low-carbon transition paths in the power system. In Part I of this study

a medium- and long-term energy and power structure calculation model is established. Using the model

several transition paths are designed for China's power system

considering different low-carbon technology options such as green hydrogen substitution

green fuels co-firing

carbon capture and storage (CCS)

and comprehensive emission reduction measures. Then

the evolution trends of key indicators in the energy and power system under different transition paths are analyzed

including total energy and electricity consumption

energy and power structure

demand for green hydrogen and green fuels

and carbon emissions. Through analysis and comparison of different transition paths

this paper (Part I) aims to provide feasible technical solutions for China's power system to realize carbon neutrality by 2060.

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references

1. United Nations News. ( 2020, Sep. ). ‘Enhance solidarity’ to fight COVID-19, Chinese President urges, also pledges carbon neutrality by 2060 [Online ] . Available: https://news.un.org/en/story/202010911073052.

2. Ministry of Science and Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, et al ( 2022, Aug. ). Science and Technology to Support Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral Implementation Plan (2022–2030) [Online ] . Available: https://www.most.gov.cn/xxgk/xinxifenlei/fdzdgknr/fgzc/zcjd/202208/t20220817_181987.html

3. National Bureau of Statistics of China. ( 2025, Feb. ). Statistical communiqué of the People's Republic of China on the 2024 national economic and social development [Online ] . Available : https://www.stats.gov.cn/engiish/PressRelease/202502/t20250228_1958822.html.

4. China Electricity Council. ( 2025, Jan. ). China Electricity Council releases report on China's power supply and demand analysis and forecast 2024–2025 [Online ] . Available: https://cec.org.cn/detail/index.html?3-341403

5. China Electricity Council. ( 2024, Jul. ). Annual Development Report of China's Power Industry 2024 [Online ] . China Architecture Building Press. https://news.bjx.com.cn/htmI/2024071011388165.shtml

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