Yang Lei, Linxin Yu, Jifeng Zhao, et al. Segmented Forecasting of Electric Load Under Pandemic Period Based on the ESD-ABiLSTMQR Method[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(5): 2467-2476.
DOI:
Yang Lei, Linxin Yu, Jifeng Zhao, et al. Segmented Forecasting of Electric Load Under Pandemic Period Based on the ESD-ABiLSTMQR Method[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(5): 2467-2476.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2022.08020.
Segmented Forecasting of Electric Load Under Pandemic Period Based on the ESD-ABiLSTMQR Method
Affected by the pandemic coronavirus-19 (COVID-19)
significant changes have taken place in all aspects of social production and residents' lives
as well as in the energy supply and consumption characteristics of the power system. COVID-19 has brought unpredictable uncertainties to the power grid. These changes and uncertainties pose a challenge to conventional electric load forecasting. Therefore
aiming to load forecasting under the background of the pandemic
this paper proposes a power load segmented forecasting method based on the pandemic stage division method
attention mechanism
and bi-directional long and short-term memory artificial neural network quantile regression model (ESD-ABiLSTMQR). According to the development degree of the pandemic
considering characteristics of different development stages of the pandemic
the pandemic is divided into four stages by using the analytic hierarchy process method (AHP): initial stage
outbreak stage
control stage
and recovery stage. A segmented load forecasting model based on LSTM and attention mechanism is established to forecast load in different time series. Cases used data from the pandemic in Wuhan
China
for verification. Results show the segmented forecasting method can analyze load characteristics of each stage and can effectively improve the accuracy of load forecasting.