Peng Lu, Zhuo Li, Lin Ye, et al. Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Decomposition Strategy for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(4): 1454-1465.
DOI:
Peng Lu, Zhuo Li, Lin Ye, et al. Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Decomposition Strategy for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(4): 1454-1465. DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2022.07000.
Ex-Ante and Ex-Post Decomposition Strategy for Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction
摘要
Abstract
Highly reliable wind power prediction is feasible and promising for smart grids integrated with large amounts of wind power. However
the strong fluctuation features of wind power make wind power less predictable. This paper proposes a novel wind power prediction approach
incorporating wind power ex-ante and ex-post decomposition and correction. Firstly
the initial wind power during the wind power decomposition stage is decomposed into trend
fluctuation
and residual data
respectively
and the corresponding preliminary prediction models are developed
respectively. Secondly
in the error correction stage
the errors produced by the preliminary prediction model are corrected by persistence methods to compensate for final prediction errors. Moreover
the proposed model's comprehensive deterministic and probabilistic analysis is investigated in depth. Finally
the outcomes of numerical simulations demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve good performance since it can reduce wind power forecast errors compared to other established deterministic models and uncertainty models.