Fluctuation Classification and Feature Factor Extraction to Forecast Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Powers
Regular Papers|更新时间:2026-10-15
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Fluctuation Classification and Feature Factor Extraction to Forecast Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Powers
CSEE Journal of Power and Energy SystemsVol. 11, Issue 2, Pages: 661-670(2025)
作者机构:
Key Laboratory of Modern Power System Simulation and Control & Renewable Energy Technology, Ministry of Education, Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin,China
Mao Yang, Xiaoxuan Shen, Dawei Huang, et al. Fluctuation Classification and Feature Factor Extraction to Forecast Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Powers[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(2): 661-670.
DOI:
Mao Yang, Xiaoxuan Shen, Dawei Huang, et al. Fluctuation Classification and Feature Factor Extraction to Forecast Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Powers[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(2): 661-670.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2022.03760.
Fluctuation Classification and Feature Factor Extraction to Forecast Very Short-Term Photovoltaic Output Powers
a spurt of photovoltaic power generation has brought certain impact on stability of the power system
which puts forward higher requirements on accuracy of photovoltaic power prediction. Therefore
this paper proposes a hybrid power prediction model based on fluctuation classification and feature factor extraction. First
based on fluctuation characteristics of photovoltaic power
fluctuation classification is applied to forecast power before the day
and weather is divided into complex fluctuation types and simple types. Then
parallel factor algorithm is used to reduce prediction model redundancy
which can reduce high-dimensional numerical weather prediction feature matrix to extract relevant features. Finally
the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning model is used to forecast very short-term photovoltaic power. The proposed hybrid model is compared with other methods
and photovoltaic data from several sites are selected for comparison and validation in this paper. Simulation results show that very short-term prediction method of photovoltaic power proposed in this paper can significantly improve prediction accuracy.
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