Energy transition towards clean

efficient energy supply has been a common sense of the government and public in China. However

lacking reasonable planning will lead to undisciplined development

resource waste

and excessive investment. In this context

this paper investigates potential pathways of Beijing energy transition towards a high-level low-carbon

clean and efficient energy system in 2035 with an extended energysocpe model. Firstly

based on available data

future energy demands are predicted by a newly proposed hybrid forecasting method

which combines the traditional regression model

grey model

and support vector machine model with an entropy-based weighted factor. Secondly

the superstructure-based optimization model is employed to investigate the system configuration and operation strategy of the future Beijing energy system. Finally

the uncertainty impact of electricity price

natural gas price

hydrogen price

and the capital expenditures of electrolyzer and steam methane reforming for hydrogen applications are studied. The forecasting results show that all walks of life will witness a continuously increasing energy demand in multiple sectors of Beijing towards 2035. The planning results suggest that the imported electricity and natural gas will dominate the energy supply of Beijing in 2035 with a contribution of 86% of the energy resources consumption of 384 TWh. Moreover

the energy system presents a high end-use electrification level of 65% and high penetration of efficient technologies

which supply 119 TWh via combined heat and power

26 TWh via heat pump and 95 TWh via district heating network. The energy use of various sectors of energy resources

technologies and end-use are closely related. Hydrogen will have an increased penetration in the private mobility sector

but the locally generated hydrogen is mainly from steam methane reforming technology.