Bo Hu, Xin Cheng, Changzheng Shao, et al. Model and Data Hybrid Driven Approach for Quantifying the Meteorology-Dependent Demand Flexibility of Building Thermal Loads[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(1): 394-405.
DOI:
Bo Hu, Xin Cheng, Changzheng Shao, et al. Model and Data Hybrid Driven Approach for Quantifying the Meteorology-Dependent Demand Flexibility of Building Thermal Loads[J]. CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems, 2025, 11(1): 394-405.DOI: 10.17775/CSEEJPES.2021.01690.
Model and Data Hybrid Driven Approach for Quantifying the Meteorology-Dependent Demand Flexibility of Building Thermal Loads
摘要
Abstract
Recently
the heat and electricity integrated energy system (HE-IES) has become a hot topic in both industry and academia. In the HE- IES
the potential flexibility of the buildings' thermal loads can be exploited to relax the heat power balance constraints and consequently allow a more flexible operation of the combined heat and power units. In this paper
model-driven and data-driven techniques are combined to quantify the demand flexibility of the buildings' thermal loads in a non-instructive way. First
the explicit analytical equivalent thermal parameter (ETP) model of the aggregated buildings is developed. The heat transfer coefficient (
$k$
) and thermal inertia coefficient (
$C$
) of the ETP model are designated to measure the potential demand flexibility. Second
the Particle Swarm Optimization optimized Radial Basis Function neural network (PSO-RBF) is used to identify the relationship between the values of
$k$
and
$C$
and the meteorological factors. To obtain the training data
an innovative two-stage regression method based on the adaptive temporal resolution is proposed to ext
ract
$k$
and
$C$
values from the historical thermal load data. Finally
a flexible thermal load model is built based on the predictions of the meteorological factors
which can be conveniently incorporated into the online dispatch of the HE-IES. A comprehensive simulation environment is designed to verify the accuracy and availability of the proposed technique.