
1. 华北电力大学环境科学与工程学院
2. 国网能源研究院有限公司
Published:2025
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汪月新, 潘张榕, 郭军红, et al. “碳-电”市场间价格传导机制与动态演化研究[J]. 2025, 48(5): 103-110.
汪月新, 潘张榕, 郭军红, et al. “碳-电”市场间价格传导机制与动态演化研究[J]. 2025, 48(5): 103-110. DOI: 10.16527/j.issn.1003-6954.20250514.
碳市场交易是高排放火电企业实现碳履约和低碳发展的重要手段,研究碳价和电价在两个市场的相互传导和演化机制对企业参与“碳-电”市场交易策略的制定具有重要意义。通过研究火电企业参与碳排放权交易和电力市场交易过程,分析了两个市场间各因素之间的因果关系,构建了火电企业参与“碳-电”市场交易的系统动力学仿真模型。在此基础上,研究了碳价和电价在两个市场间的传导和演化机制,分析了电力需求和政府免费配额政策对电价和碳价的影响。结果表明:两个市场中,碳价和电价总体呈现“低保持—快速涨—高位平”的演化过程,当电力需求较高时,“碳-电”耦合市场的引入有利于引导火电企业投入减排技术或向低碳能源发电转型;通过政策提高免费配额的缺口比例,可以有效发挥碳价在引导火电企业低碳减排的信号作用。
Carbon market trading is an important means for high-emission thermal power enterprises to achieve carbon compliance and low-carbon development
and it is of great significance to study the mutual transmission and evolution mechanism of carbon price and electricity price in the two markets for enterprises to participate in the formulation of trading strategies in carbon and electricity markets. The causal relationship of the factors between the two markets is analyzed by studying the participation of thermal power enterprises in carbon emission trading and electricity market trading
and a system dynamics simulation model is constructed for thermal power enterprises to participate in carbon and electricity market trading. On this basis
the transmission and evolution mechanism of carbon price and electricity price between the two markets are studied
and the impact of electricity demand and government free quota policy on electricity price and carbon price is analyzed. The results show that carbon price and electricity price in the two markets generally show an evolution process of low maintenance-rapid increase-high level
and when the power demand is high
the introduction of carbon and electricity coupling market is conducive to guiding thermal power enterprises to invest in emission reduction technologies or transform to low-carbon energy power generation. Increasing the proportion of free quota gaps through policies can effectively play the role of carbon prices in guiding low-carbon emission reduction signals for thermal power enterprises.
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