
国网四川省电力公司电力科学研究院
Published:2025
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周波, 孙昕炜, 徐韵扬, et al. 山火灾害下考虑连锁故障的韧性评估方法研究[J]. 2025, (4): 71-79.
周波, 孙昕炜, 徐韵扬, et al. 山火灾害下考虑连锁故障的韧性评估方法研究[J]. 2025, (4): 71-79. DOI: 10.16527/j.issn.1003-6954.202504011.
为准确评估并有效区分由山火灾害引发的连锁故障过程对于电力系统实际安全稳定运行的影响,在考虑连锁故障过程不确定性的基础上,以连锁故障过程中的失负荷指标作为研究对象,构建了用以区分不同连锁故障失负荷过程对于电力系统影响的韧性评价指标。在综合考虑山火地理位置分布、山火蔓延特性以及输电线路故障风险量化的基础上,提出山火灾害下输电线路故障概率计算方法,并将蒙特卡洛模拟方法结合影响增量状态枚举法应用于考虑输电线路连锁故障过程不确定特性的电力系统韧性水平计算评估。以某地区山火历史数据为基础,在IEEE标准系统以及该地区500 kV实际输电网上开展了计算工作。计算结果表明,所构建的韧性评估模型不仅准确评估并区分了不同连锁故障过程对于电力系统的影响,而且具有良好的计算准确度和较高的计算效率。
In order to evaluate accurately and classify effectively the impacts of cascading failures on actual safe and stable operation of power system caused by wildfire disasters
and considering the uncertainty of cascading failure process
the load shedding index of cascading failure process is taken as the research object to construct the resilience assessment index for classifying the impacts of different cascading failure-induced load shedding on power system. Based on the comprehensive consideration of geographical distribution of wildfires
wildfire spread characteristics and quantification of transmission line fault risks
the fault probability calculation method for transmission lines under wildfires is proposed
and an incremental state enumeration method combined with Monte Carlo simulation method is applied to the resilience assessment of power system. Finally
based on the historical data of wildfires in a specific province
the validity of the proposed resilience assessment model is verified on IEEE standard system
and the calculation work is carried out on 500 kV actual transmission network in this province to validate the good calculation accuracy and higher calculation efficiency of the proposed approach.
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