Prediction of maximum surface subsidence velocity based on improved 
Knothe time model

ZHANG Liang-liang; CHENG Hua; YAO Zhi-shu; WANG Xiao-jian

doi:10.16285/j.rsm.2022.0638

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Prediction of maximum surface subsidence velocity based on improved Knothe time model

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Prediction of maximum surface subsidence velocity based on improved Knothe time model
- Vol. 44, Issue 4, Pages: 1111-1119(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安徽理工大学土木建筑学院,安徽,淮南,232001
  2. 安徽大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽,合肥,230022
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16285/j.rsm.2022.0638
  CLC： TD327
- Online First：29 April 2023，
  
  Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
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ZHANG Liang-liang, CHENG Hua, YAO Zhi-shu, et al. Prediction of maximum surface subsidence velocity based on improved Knothe time model[J]. 2023, 44(4): 1111-1119.
DOI：

ZHANG Liang-liang, CHENG Hua, YAO Zhi-shu, et al. Prediction of maximum surface subsidence velocity based on improved Knothe time model[J]. 2023, 44(4): 1111-1119. DOI： 10.16285/j.rsm.2022.0638.

摘要

在传统Knothe时间模型假设基础上提出新的假设，构建改进Knothe时间模型，通过理论分析表明，改进后的时间模型符合地表点沉降和沉降速度变化规律；基于改进Knothe时间模型推导了地表最大沉降速度计算表达式，并给出模型参数确定方法。采用20个矿区开采引起的地表最大沉降速度监测值与理论预测值进行对比，结果表明，20个矿区的地表最大沉降速度理论预测值与监测值吻合程度高，两者相对标准偏差仅为2.1%，验证了模型的精确性和可靠性。地表最大沉降速度受煤层采高、开采速度、松散层厚度和基岩层厚度等参数影响，研究表明，地表最大沉降速度随煤层采高和开采速度的增加而线性增加，随松散层厚度、基岩层厚度的增加而非线性减小，且其对基岩层厚度变化的敏感性比松散层厚度变化大。

Abstract

Based on the traditional Knothe time model hypothesis

a new hypothesis is proposed and an improved Knothe time model is constructed. The theoretical analysis shows that the improved Knothe time model conforms to the variation law of surface point subsidence and subsidence velocity. Based on the improved Knothe time model

a calculation expression of the maximum surface subsidence velocity is deduced

and a method to determine the model parameters is given. The monitored values of maximum surface subsidence velocity caused by mining in 20 mining areas are used to compared with the theoretically predicted values. It shows that the predicted value is in good agreement with the monitored value

and the relative standard deviation is only 2.1%

which verifies the accuracy and reliability of the present model. It is important to note that the maximum surface subsidence velocity is affected by mining height

mining speed

loose layer thickness

bedrock layer thickness and other parameters. The maximum surface subsidence velocity increases linearly with the increase of mining height and mining speed

decreases nonlinearly with the increase of loose layer thickness and bedrock layer thickness

and its sensitivity to the change of bedrock layer thickness is higher than to that of loose layer thickness.

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