Time-varying reliability of landslide stability based on improved 
Green-Ampt model

CAI Zheng-long; MENG Yong-dong; QIN Yi; CHEN Bo-fu; TIAN Bin

doi:10.16285/j.rsm.2021.0627

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Time-varying reliability of landslide stability based on improved Green-Ampt model

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Time-varying reliability of landslide stability based on improved Green-Ampt model
- Vol. 43, Issue 1, Pages: 268-276(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 三峡大学湖北长江三峡滑坡国家野外科学观测研究站,湖北,宜昌,443002
  2. 三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北,宜昌,443002
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16285/j.rsm.2021.0627
  CLC： P642.22
- Online First：07 January 2022，
  
  Published：2022
- 稿件说明：
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CAI Zheng-long, MENG Yong-dong, QIN Yi, et al. Time-varying reliability of landslide stability based on improved Green-Ampt model[J]. 2022, 43(1): 268-276.
DOI：

CAI Zheng-long, MENG Yong-dong, QIN Yi, et al. Time-varying reliability of landslide stability based on improved Green-Ampt model[J]. 2022, 43(1): 268-276. DOI： 10.16285/j.rsm.2021.0627.

摘要

降雨入渗滑坡稳定可靠度分析往往仅考虑了土体参数的空间变异性，而忽略土体初始含水率非均匀性空间分布的影响。基于此，推导了不同降雨工况条件下初始含水率任一分布的Green-Ampt入渗模型，利用变步长复化Simpson法求解初始含水率不同空间分布条件下湿润锋深度与降雨历时的函数关系。结合多维正态累计分布函数Mvncdf，计算整个降雨评估基准期滑坡稳定的时变可靠度，并利用某一滑坡实例进行对比验证。计算结果表明，初始含水率空间分布的不同对降雨条件下滑坡稳定时变可靠度的影响十分明显，且相较于初始含水率为均匀和梯形分布；相同降雨条件下，指数分布时滑坡稳定时变可靠度的下降幅度最小。该改进模型适用于土体初始含水率的任意分布，有利于Green-Ampt模型在滑坡稳定性评价的普适性推广应用。

Abstract

Generally

reliability analyscs of landslide stability under rainfall infiltration only consider the spatial variability of calculated parameters of soil materials

while the influence of non-uniform distribution of initial water is ignored. To solve this problem

the governing equation for Green-Ampt infiltration model with arbitrary distribution of initial water content under different rainfall conditions is derived

and a variable-step compound Simpson method is used to solve the governing equation for exploring the functional relation between wetting front depth and rainfall duration with different spatial distribution of initial water content. Then

the time-varying probability of landslide during the process of rainfall infiltration is calculated using multidimensional normal cumulative distribution function (Mvncdf). Finally

an actual case is used for verification through comparative analysis. The results show that different spatial distribution of initial water content has a significant impact on the time-varying reliability of landslide stability under rainfall conditions. Compared with the uniform and trapezoidal distribution of initial water content

the exponential distribution has the smallest decrease rate of time-varying reliability for landslide stability under the same rainfall condition. The improved model is feasible for arbitrary distribution of initial water content of soil

which is conducive to the universal application of Green-Ampt model in landslide stability evaluation.

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