Logistic regression model for stability assessment of karst ground collapse of Tangshan city

LI Jian-peng; NIE Qing-ke; LIU Quan-sheng; JIA Xiang-xin

doi:10.16285/j.rsm.2017.S2.035

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Logistic regression model for stability assessment of karst ground collapse of Tangshan city

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Logistic regression model for stability assessment of karst ground collapse of Tangshan city
- Vol. 38, Issue S2, Pages: 250-256(2017)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河北省交通规划设计院,河北,石家庄,050011
  2. 河北建设勘察研究院有限公司,河北,石家庄,050031
  3. 武汉大学土木建筑工程学院,湖北,武汉,430072
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16285/j.rsm.2017.S2.035
  CLC： P641
- Online First：05 June 2018，
  
  Published：2017
- 稿件说明：
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LI Jian-peng, NIE Qing-ke, LIU Quan-sheng, et al. Logistic regression model for stability assessment of karst ground collapse of Tangshan city[J]. 2017, 38(S2): 250-256.
DOI：

LI Jian-peng, NIE Qing-ke, LIU Quan-sheng, et al. Logistic regression model for stability assessment of karst ground collapse of Tangshan city[J]. 2017, 38(S2): 250-256. DOI： 10.16285/j.rsm.2017.S2.035.

摘要

针对覆盖型岩溶发育区地面稳定性评价问题，提出一种新的岩溶地面塌陷稳定性评价方法。依据唐山市岩溶勘察与地灾评估资料，以岩溶发育区地面稳定情况为因变量，选取5个主要影响因素作为自变量，建立了岩溶地面塌陷稳定性评价的二分类Logistic回归模型。模型拟合优度、预测能力和模型稳定性检验表明，该模型预测能力强，预测结果与实际情况吻合度良好。所建模型能对定性因素进行定量分析，易于获取评价因子，可简便地、快捷地对与唐山岩溶发育区相似区域的岩溶地面塌陷稳定性给出评价，值得推广和应用。

Abstract

A new method for assessment of karst ground collapse stability is presented for ground stability assessment at a covered karst area. Based on data of karst geological survey and karst disaster assessment from Tangshan city

the ground stability condition is investigated; and 5 major factors that might affect the karst ground stability are selected as independent variables

and then a logistic regression model for stability assessment of karst ground collapse is established. This model not only meets goodness-of-fit test

but also have good performance in stability and forecast accuracy. The presented model can carry out the quantitative analysis for qualitative factors

and the factors investigated are relatively easy to obtain; thus the logistic regression method for karst ground collapse stability can be widely applied to covered karst area.

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