Reliability analysis for overall stability of large-span double-row steel 
sheet-piled dock cofferdam based on Bayesian method

ZHU Yan; GU Qian-yan; JIANG Jie; PENG Ming; XIAO Bin-hui

doi:10.16285/j.rsm.2016.S1.080

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Reliability analysis for overall stability of large-span double-row steel sheet-piled dock cofferdam based on Bayesian method

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Reliability analysis for overall stability of large-span double-row steel sheet-piled dock cofferdam based on Bayesian method
- Vol. 37, Issue S1, Pages: 609-615(2016)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 中船第九设计研究院工程有限公司,上海,200063
  2. 广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西,南宁,530004
  3. 同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海,200092
  4. 同济大学岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室,上海,200092
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.16285/j.rsm.2016.S1.080
  CLC： TU473
- Online First：09 June 2018，
  
  Published：2016
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
ZHU Yan, GU Qian-yan, JIANG Jie, et al. Reliability analysis for overall stability of large-span double-row steel sheet-piled dock cofferdam based on Bayesian method[J]. 2016, 37(S1): 609-615.
DOI：

ZHU Yan, GU Qian-yan, JIANG Jie, et al. Reliability analysis for overall stability of large-span double-row steel sheet-piled dock cofferdam based on Bayesian method[J]. 2016, 37(S1): 609-615. DOI： 10.16285/j.rsm.2016.S1.080.

摘要

双排钢板桩围堰的整体稳定性具有较大的不确定性，同样安全系数情况下对应的失稳概率可能不同。为了更准确地分析双排钢板桩围堰的整体稳定性，降低稳定性分析中的不确定性，采用贝叶斯方法对船坞双排钢板桩围堰的整体稳定性进行可靠度分析。首先通过统计数据获取土体参数的先验分布，然后基于实测数据采用贝叶斯方法更新参数以得到后验分布，最后根据参数的后验分布采用一次二阶矩计算围堰结构的可靠度。贝叶斯方法从理论的角度解决了已有工程经验和实际案例数据两方面信息有效综合的问题，能在更接近实际情况的前提下进行可靠度分析。

Abstract

There are large uncertainties in the overall stability of supporting structure of large-span double-row sheet-piled cofferdam. The projects with the same values of factor of safety may have different failure probabilities. It is found in practice that some projects with large factor of safety failed and vice versa. In order to improve the evaluation and reduce the uncertainties of stability analysis

Bayesian method is applied for reliability analysis. First

the prior probabilities of soil parameters are obtained based on statistic data. Then

the posterior probabilities are achieved by updating the prior with measured data based on Bayesian method. Finally

the method of “first order second moment” is applied to conduct reliability analysis of the supporting structure stability of deep excavation. Bayesian method theoretically solves the problem of integrating the information from both experience and measurements. The reliability analysis with Bayesian method may be closer to real cases.

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