
1. 中船动力研究院有限公司
2. 上海交通大学动力机械与工程教育部重点实验室
3. 中船动力(集团)有限公司
Published:2026
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宋雅丽, 林海鹏, 吴朝晖, et al. 基于机理和数据融合的船用发动机可靠性预测[J]. 2026, 44(2): 172-180.
宋雅丽, 林海鹏, 吴朝晖, et al. 基于机理和数据融合的船用发动机可靠性预测[J]. 2026, 44(2): 172-180. DOI: 10.16236/j.cnki.nrjxb.202602019.
针对传统船用大功率发动机可靠性研究数据样本不足、试验代价高的问题,基于机理模型和数据统计融合的方法建立船用发动机可靠性模型,由整机性能及衰退模型、动力学模型、部件损伤模型和系统可靠性指标分析模型组成,整机性能及衰退模型和动力学模型为部件损伤模型提供边界条件,系统可靠性指标分析模型根据部件损伤参数和先验统计数据分析整机的可靠性.其中,部件损伤模型考虑了关键摩擦副和主要受力件的磨损和疲劳损伤;系统可靠性指标分析模型采用蒙特卡洛算法和拉丁超立方抽样对机理模型计算的损伤参数进行统计分析和可靠度计算.对某船用中速柴油机的可靠性分析表明,可靠度为0.9时柴油机的寿命为11 650 h.该整机可靠性指标分析方法结合损伤机理和先验统计数据,考虑了各部件损伤的相关性,与统计数据融合后得到了船用中速柴油机的平均无故障时间(MTBF).
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