
1. 江西水利电力大学水利工程学院
2. 中国水利水电科学研究院
3. 中国长江三峡集团有限公司
Published:2026
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程彬彬, 冯珺, 朱博然, et al. 极端干旱条件下溪洛渡—向家坝梯级水库的适应性调度策略研究[J]. 2026, (6).
程彬彬, 冯珺, 朱博然, et al. 极端干旱条件下溪洛渡—向家坝梯级水库的适应性调度策略研究[J]. 2026, (6). DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrdr.2026.06.011.
针对长江流域极端干旱与“丰枯急转”背景下梯级电站水能利用受限的问题,文章选取溪洛渡—向家坝梯级水库为研究对象,构建旬尺度HEC-Res Sim联合调度模型;在平水年、50/100/1 000年一遇干旱年及2021年丰枯急转典型情景下开展情景对比分析。结果表明:现行规程下干旱年主汛期仍出现集中弃水(7—8月),2021年弃水峰值滞后至9月上旬,发电出力与水能利用率明显受限;极端干旱时溪洛渡与向家坝年发电量较平水年降幅显著。针对上述短板,提出3类适应性策略:提高汛限水位;提前蓄水;提高汛限水位的同时提前蓄水。仿真模拟分析显示:在1 000年一遇极端干旱下,策略3使梯级电站增加发电量10亿k Wh,优于策略1与策略2;在2021年丰枯急转下,策略3使梯级电站增加发电量17亿kWh且显著削减弃水(两库年弃水流量分别减少约8 332.1 m3/s与7 617.3 m3/s),策略2亦明显增加发电量与减少弃水,策略1作用相对有限。研究表明,面向不同年型的差异化调度策略,可在不改变工程安全约束的前提下显著提升梯级运行效益并增强对极端情景的适应性。
Under the context of extreme drought and the rapid transition between flood and drought in the Yangtze River Basin
which limits the hydropower utilization of cascade power stations
the study focuses on the Xiluodu-Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs. A 10-day scale HEC-ResSim joint scheduling model is developed for the analysis. Scenario comparison analysis was conducted under the benchmark of a normal water year
drought years with return periods of 50/100/1 000 years
and a representative 2021 rapid wet-to-dry transition scenario. Results show that
under the current regulations
concentrated water abandonment still occurs during the main flood season( July-August) in drought years. In 2021
the peak of water abandonment lagged until the early September
leading to significant constraints on power generation output and water energy utilization efficiency. During extreme droughts
the annual power generation of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba hydropower stations shows a substantial decrease compared with that in normal water years. To address the aforementioned shortcomings
three categories of adaptive strategies are proposed: raising the flood control level; advancing the impoundment schedule; raising the flood control level while advancing the impoundment schedule. Simulation results demonstrate that under the 1000-year return period extreme drought
Strategy 3 increases the total power generation of the cascaded hydropower stations by 1. 0 ×10~9k Wh
which is superior to both Strategy 1 and Strategy 2; Under the 2021 scenario of abrupt wet-dry transition
Strategy 3 increases the cascaded hydropower stations' total power generation by 1. 7 × 10~9k Wh while significantly reducing water abandonment( the annual abandoned flow rates of the two reservoirs decrease by approximately 8 332. 1 m3/s and 7 617. 3m3/s
respectively). Strategy 2 also achieves considerable growth in power generation and a notable reduction in water abandonment
whereas the effect of Strategy 1 is relatively limited. The research demonstrates that differentiated operation strategies tailored to diverse hydrological years can significantly enhance the operational efficiency of the cascaded system and strengthen its adaptability to extreme scenarios without altering the engineering safety constraints.
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