This study focuses on the matching relationship between new energy installed capacity and accommodation capacity

and adopts the constraint setting method

the peak regulation and accommodation balance method

and scenario classification and sensitivity analysis. It is suggested that system calculations should be conducted in combination with boundary verification

comprehensively considering consumption and balance. The moderate scenario ratio of 7:3 should be prioritized for locking

and the guaranteed grid connection scale of 15 GW should remain unchanged. In the short term

10% to 15% of installed capacity margin can be released by optimizing energy storage operation strategies and thermal power peak regulation curves. In the medium term

energy storage construction

flexibility upgrades of thermal power units

and expansion of outgoing transmission channels should be promoted to gradually expand toward the upper limit. In the long term

pumped storage and demand side response resources should be added to adapt to load growth and the expansion demand for new energy installed capacity.