Uncertainty analysis of reserves of fluvial reservoir calculated by geological model

Xue Yanxia; Liao Xinwu; Huo Chunliang; Hu Yong; Zhang Rucai

doi:10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2018.04.001

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Uncertainty analysis of reserves of fluvial reservoir calculated by geological model

更新时间：2025-12-05

- Uncertainty analysis of reserves of fluvial reservoir calculated by geological model
- Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development Issue 4, Pages: 1-5+10(2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  中海石油(中国)有限公司天津分公司渤海石油研究院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2018.04.001
  CLC： P618.13
- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
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[1]薛艳霞,廖新武,霍春亮,胡勇,张如才.海上河流相储层应用地质模型计算储量的不确定性分析[J].油气藏评价与开发,2018,8(04):1-5+10.

Xue Yanxia, Liao Xinwu, Huo Chunliang, et al. Uncertainty analysis of reserves of fluvial reservoir calculated by geological model[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2018, (4): 1-5+10.
[1]薛艳霞,廖新武,霍春亮,胡勇,张如才.海上河流相储层应用地质模型计算储量的不确定性分析[J].油气藏评价与开发,2018,8(04):1-5+10. DOI： 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2018.04.001.

Xue Yanxia, Liao Xinwu, Huo Chunliang, et al. Uncertainty analysis of reserves of fluvial reservoir calculated by geological model[J]. Petroleum Reservoir Evaluation and Development, 2018, (4): 1-5+10. DOI： 10.13809/j.cnki.cn32-1825/te.2018.04.001.

摘要

影响海上河流相储层地质模型储量不确定性变量有构造、平面变差函数、储层属性与地震属性的相关性、束缚水饱和度、有效储层下限值、体积系数和油水界面等。分析了不确定性变量产生的根源

并以渤海Q油田为例

综合应用Monte-Carlo计算方法和随机建模技术

定量评价了不确定性变量对油田储量产生的影响

得到储量的概率累积分布曲线及悲观的（P90）、期望的（P50）和乐观的（P10）3个概率储量值

预测了储层储量存在的风险和潜力。

Abstract

The reserves of the geological model in the offshore fluvial reservoirs are influenced by the uncertain parameters

such as the structure

plane variogram

correlation between reservoir properties and seismic attributes

irreducible water saturation

lower limiting value of effective reservoir

volume coefficient

and oil-water interface. The root that causes these uncertain parameters is analyzed. Meanwhile

taking oilfield-Q in Bohai bay as an example

and by the integrated application of the Monte-Carlo method and stochastic modeling

the effects of the uncertainty parameters on the reserves are estimated quantitatively. The probability cumulative distribution curves of reserves and 3 probability reserve value which are the pessimistic reserves（P90）

expected reserves（P50）and optimistic reserves（P10）are obtained to predict the risk and potential of the reserves.

关键词

Keywords

references

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