极端高温天气下配电网的风险评估方法

LIANG Zhenfeng; ZHANG Jiahao; YAN Junjie; ZHANG Jiankang; WANG Xiaowei

doi:10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20250108

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极端高温天气下配电网的风险评估方法

更新时间：2026-09-16

- 极端高温天气下配电网的风险评估方法
- Vol. 51, Issue 10, Pages: 5042-5052(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 西安理工大学电气工程学院,西安,710054
  2. 国网陕西省电力有限公司西安供电公司,西安,710032
  3. 国家电网有限公司西北分部,西安,710048
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20250108
  CLC：
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
LIANG Zhenfeng, ZHANG Jiahao, YAN Junjie, et al. 极端高温天气下配电网的风险评估方法[J]. 2025, 51(10): 5042-5052.
DOI：

LIANG Zhenfeng, ZHANG Jiahao, YAN Junjie, et al. 极端高温天气下配电网的风险评估方法[J]. 2025, 51(10): 5042-5052. DOI： 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20250108.

摘要

持续的极端高温天气威胁着配电网的安全可靠运行。提出了一种极端高温天气下的配电网风险评估方法。首先分析了配电区域环境温度的时空分布特征，将配电区域划分为1 km×1 km的网格，计算确定配电网区域气温与各网格环境温度的关系式。其次分析了极端高温天气对配电网的影响机理，结合配电变压器绕组热点温度、开关柜环境温度和配电线路载流量建立了配电设备故障模型，进而计算了配电设备的故障概率。最后通过蒙特卡洛抽样法获得配电设备的故障状态，考虑故障修复及配电网重构计算配电网的运行状态，实现配电网运行风险的评估。将IEEE-33节点系统配置于西安市某地区作为算例，结果表明所提方法和指标能合理评估极端高温天气下配电网的风险。

Abstract

Continuous extremely hot weather threatens the safe and reliable operation of distribution networks. Therefore

we propose a risk assessment method for distribution networks under extreme hot weather. Firstly

the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of the ambient temperature in the distribution area are analyzed

the distribution area is divided into 1 km×1 km grids

and the relationship equation between the regional air temperature of the distribution network and the ambient temperature of each grid is calculated and determined. Secondly

the influence mechanism of extreme hot weather on distribution network is analyzed

and the distribution equipment failure model is established by combining the distribution transformer winding temperature

switchgear ambient temperature and distribution line current carrying capacity

and then the failure probability of power distribution equipment is calculated. Finally

the fault states of distribution equipment are obtained by the Monte Carlo sampling method

and the operational states of distribution network are calculated by considering fault repair and distribution network reconfiguration to realize the assessment of distribution network operation risk. The IEEE-33 node system is configured in an area of Xi'an City as an example

and the results show that the proposed method and indexes can be adopted to reasonably assess the risk of distribution networks under extreme hot weather.

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