With the advancement of the construction process of new power systems

the problem of insufficient local consumption capacity in the northwest region has become prominent. After considering the requirements of local power and hydrogen energy needs

a new energy external transmission and consumption prediction system dynamics model was constructed. First

starting from the development potential of new energy

the characteristics of electricity consumption in various industries

and the characteristics of hydrogen consumption in various fields

we divided the new energy outsourcing prediction system into three subsystems

namely

new energy

electric power load and hydrogen energy load

and constructed wind power and photovoltaic

respectively. New energy development potential prediction models include hydrogen energy load prediction models in the four fields of industry

electricity

heat

and transportation

and electric power load prediction models covering primary industry

secondary industry

tertiary industry

and urban and rural domestic electricity consumption. Secondly

the three subsystems and their interactive relationships and feedback mechanisms with the scale of new energy delivery were clarified

and a new energy delivery prediction system dynamics model was formed. Finally

taking the Gansu region as an example

we analyzed manpower

investment

transportation and hydrogen storage. Four development models are used to conduct scenario analysis that affects the scale of new energy delivery. The results show that

under the human-oriented and investment-oriented models

the scale of new energy delivery in 2030 will increase by 83.9% and 91.5%; moreover

driven by transportation demands and hydrogen storage demands

the scale of new energy delivery in 2030 will decrease by 6.8% and 12.2%.