宋嘉炯, 1, 2, et al. Wind Power Prediction Method Under Cold Wave Weather Conditions Based on RTSGAN Sample Data Expansion and Attention Dynamic Weight Integration[J]. 2026, 50(2): 869-879.
DOI:
宋嘉炯, 1, 2, et al. Wind Power Prediction Method Under Cold Wave Weather Conditions Based on RTSGAN Sample Data Expansion and Attention Dynamic Weight Integration[J]. 2026, 50(2): 869-879. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2025.0561.
Wind Power Prediction Method Under Cold Wave Weather Conditions Based on RTSGAN Sample Data Expansion and Attention Dynamic Weight Integration
风电出力与运行条件密切相关,寒潮作为一种极端天气事件,往往会导致电力负荷激增。该场景下的风电功率预测结果与实际出力存在较大偏差,从而对电力系统的安全稳定运行带来了挑战。文章提出了一种基于现实时间序列生成对抗网络(real-world time series generative adversarial network,RTSGAN)样本扩充和注意力动态权重集成的寒潮极端天气条件风电功率预测方法。首先针对寒潮天气下风电样本稀缺的问题,采用RTSGAN对寒潮事件原始数据进行样本扩充;然后基于扩充得到的样本数据集分别构建基础预测模型和注意力网络;最后通过注意力动态权重集成方法进行风电功率预测。算例结果表明,所提方法能够解决寒潮极端天气风电样本稀缺的问题,可有效提升寒潮极端天气条件下的风电功率预测精度。
Abstract
Wind power output is closely related to operational conditions. As an extreme weather event
the cold wave often leads to a sharp increase in electricity load. In this scenario
the wind power prediction results may deviate significantly from actual output
posing challenges to the safe operation of the power system. This paper proposes a wind power prediction method for extreme cold wave weather conditions
utilizing RTSGAN sample expansion and attention dynamic weight integration. Firstly
to address the issue of scarce wind power samples during cold wave conditions
RTSGAN is used to expand the original sample data for the cold wave period. Then
the basic prediction models and attention network are constructed based on the expanded sample dataset. Finally
the wind power prediction is carried out by the attention dynamic weight integration method. Experimental results show that the proposed method can address the scarcity of wind power samples during cold wave extreme weather and effectively improve the accuracy of wind power prediction under these conditions.