YU Jie, 1, YAN Pengyang, et al. Simulation Analysis of Power Market Operation Dynamics Using Evolutionary Game Theory and System Dynamics[J]. 2025, 49(11): 4612-4624.
DOI:
YU Jie, 1, YAN Pengyang, et al. Simulation Analysis of Power Market Operation Dynamics Using Evolutionary Game Theory and System Dynamics[J]. 2025, 49(11): 4612-4624. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2025.0032.
Simulation Analysis of Power Market Operation Dynamics Using Evolutionary Game Theory and System Dynamics
Under the dual-carbon goals and the advancement of power market reform
government carbon regulation policies play a crucial role in guiding the structural transformation of power generation and ensuring the stability of power market operations. However
there is a lack of quantitative analysis models and simulation methodologies in this area. This study employs an evolutionary game algorithm to analyze the bidding strategy choices of power generation clusters under different government carbon regulation scenarios. Additionally
system dynamics and dissipative structure theory investigate power market operational trends. Based on the carbon emission characteristics of power generation equipment
power generation enterprises are categorized into low-carbon clusters (low-carbon coal-fired power generation enterprises) and traditional clusters. A tripartite evolutionary game model involving low-carbon clusters
traditional clusters
and government entities is established
considering factors such as fuel costs
bidding strategies
and carbon emission quotas. Key market operation indicators are defined based on the strategic choices of each entity
and system dynamics simulations are conducted to analyze their variations. Furthermore
dissipative structure theory is employed to assess the overall market operation trends. The case study is based on a simulation using data from a provincial electricity market. The results demonstrate that during the initial phase of carbon regulation policy implementation
the government
by increasing subsidies and strengthening regulatory measures to guide traditional clusters in upgrading and retrofitting
can not only effectively enhance the power supply efficiency and capacity of the electricity market but also reduce the overall operational entropy of the market
thereby promoting stable and balanced market operations. The proposed model and methodology can effectively analyze the operational dynamics of the electricity market
providing forward-looking and practical decision-making support for the long-term stable and efficient operation of the electricity market.