Wind-Solar Uncertainty Modeling Based on Semi-invariant-maximum Entropy and Probabilistic Energy Flow Analysis of Integrated Electricity-Gas-Heat System
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Wind-Solar Uncertainty Modeling Based on Semi-invariant-maximum Entropy and Probabilistic Energy Flow Analysis of Integrated Electricity-Gas-Heat System
FU Yulan, LIU Xinrui, HUANG Yujia, et al. Wind-Solar Uncertainty Modeling Based on Semi-invariant-maximum Entropy and Probabilistic Energy Flow Analysis of Integrated Electricity-Gas-Heat System[J]. 2025, 49(10): 4287-4298.
DOI:
FU Yulan, LIU Xinrui, HUANG Yujia, et al. Wind-Solar Uncertainty Modeling Based on Semi-invariant-maximum Entropy and Probabilistic Energy Flow Analysis of Integrated Electricity-Gas-Heat System[J]. 2025, 49(10): 4287-4298. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.1508.
Wind-Solar Uncertainty Modeling Based on Semi-invariant-maximum Entropy and Probabilistic Energy Flow Analysis of Integrated Electricity-Gas-Heat System
为应对气候变化、推动绿色低碳转型,综合能源系统(integrated energy systems,IES)由此兴起并迅速发展。然而,异质能源载体间的耦合作用以及风光、负荷的随机波动给IES的规划运行带来新的挑战。为此,提出一种基于半不变量计算框架和最大熵原理的概率多能流求解方法,以充分反映计及不确定性因素下的电-气-热互联系统运行情况。首先对各能源载体以及耦合设备进行稳态建模并求解,获取多能耦合网络下状态变量的分布情况;其次,根据不确定性输入变量的概率特征,给出输出扰动状态变量的半不变量计算框架,联合最大熵模型求解输出状态变量的概率密度;然后,基于最大熵分布下的状态变量概率分布结果,识别异质能源系统下的薄弱节点;最后,采用IES 34-20-14与IES 57-20-32节点系统进行算例分析,并与多种状态变量分布的拟合方法对比。结果表明,所提方法能够保持在最大不确定性程度下获得准确的概率分布结果,实现对IES概率能流的快速求解。
Abstract
Integrating energy systems have emerged and developed rapidly to tackle climate change and promote green and low-carbon transition. However
the coupling of heterogeneous energy carriers and the random fluctuation of wind
PV and load bring new challenges to the planning and operation of IES. Therefore
a probabilistic multi-energy flow solution method based on semi-invariant computing framework and principle of maximum entropy is proposed to reflect the operation of integrated electricity-gas-heat system with uncertainties fully. Firstly
the steady-state modeling and solution of heterogeneous energy carriers and coupling components are carried out to obtain the distribution of state variables in multi-energy coupling networks. Secondly
according to the numerical characteristics of uncertain input variables
a probabilistic multi-energy flow calculation model based on semi-invariant computing framework is constructed
and the probability density of output state variables is obtained by combining the maximum entropy rule. Then
based on the probability distribution results of state variables under the maximum entropy distribution
the weak nodes in heterogeneous energy systems are identified. Finally
the IES 34-20-14 and IES 57-20-32 bus systems are analyzed and compared with various state variable distribution fitting methods. The results show that this method can obtain accurate probability distribution under the maximum uncertainty
and realize the quick solution of IES probability energy flow.