ZHONG Yan, 1, WANG Jun, et al. Ultra-short-term Power Load Prediction Under Extreme Weather Based on Secondary Reconstruction Denoising and BiLSTM[J]. 2025, 49(11): 4791-4800.
DOI:
ZHONG Yan, 1, WANG Jun, et al. Ultra-short-term Power Load Prediction Under Extreme Weather Based on Secondary Reconstruction Denoising and BiLSTM[J]. 2025, 49(11): 4791-4800. DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2024.0935.
Ultra-short-term Power Load Prediction Under Extreme Weather Based on Secondary Reconstruction Denoising and BiLSTM
极端天气事件的发生会导致电力负荷产生突增或突降,对电网的稳定性和供电能力带来挑战。然而,现有的超短期负荷预测方法对极端天气下非线性和动态变化的负荷特征预测能力有限。为应对极端天气下负荷突变性强及波动剧烈导致的预测精度降低的问题,提出了一种考虑极端天气的二次重构分解去噪和双向长短时记忆网络(bidirectional long short-term memory,BiLSTM)的超短期电力负荷预测方法。首先,利用最大信息系数选取出能够最大程度反映对负荷影响的气候特征。然后,通过二次重构分解去噪方法提取到负荷多个频段的特征,降低数据复杂性,为BiLSTM模型提供更干净和信息量更清晰的输入序列,从而改善模型的训练效果和预测能力。最后基于比利时、福建省某区域以及得土安市的历史数据集进行算例分析,不同算例中平均绝对百分比误差分别下降到1.024%、0.875%、1.270%和1.009%,实验结果验证了所提方法在极端天气发生时的电力负荷超短期预测方面具有较好的预测性能和广阔的应用前景。
Abstract
Extreme weather events can cause sudden increases or drops in electrical loads
posing challenges to power grids' stability and power supply capacity. However
the existing ultra-short-term load forecasting methods cannot predict the load characteristics of nonlinear and dynamic changes under extreme weather. To cope with the problem of the reduction of prediction accuracy caused by strong load abruptness and severe fluctuation under extreme weather
this paper proposes an ultra-short-term power load prediction method based on quadratic reconstruction decomposition and denoising and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) which considering extreme weather. Firstly
the maximum information coefficient was used to select the climate characteristics strongly correlated with load. Then
the features of multiple frequency bands are extracted by the quadratic reconstruction decomposition and denoising method
which reduces the data complexity and provides a cleaner and clearer input sequence for the BiLSTM model to improve the model's training effect and prediction ability. Finally
based on the historical datasets of Belgium
Fujian Province
and Tétouan
the Mean Absolute Percentage Error in different cases decreased to 1.024%
0.875%
1.270%
and 1.009%
respectively. Experimental results verify that the proposed method performs well and has broad application prospects in ultra-short-term power load prediction during extreme weather.