Multi-market Coupling Simulation and System Resilience Evaluation Method Considering Dynamic Evolution of Multiple Heterogeneous Entities With Coal-fired Power, Renewable Energy and Energy Storage
|更新时间:2026-10-16
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Multi-market Coupling Simulation and System Resilience Evaluation Method Considering Dynamic Evolution of Multiple Heterogeneous Entities With Coal-fired Power, Renewable Energy and Energy Storage
ZHU Yankai, HUANG Yujing, WANG Qinghua, et al. Multi-market Coupling Simulation and System Resilience Evaluation Method Considering Dynamic Evolution of Multiple Heterogeneous Entities With Coal-fired Power, Renewable Energy and Energy Storage[J]. 2026, 46(18): 6580-6596.
DOI:
ZHU Yankai, HUANG Yujing, WANG Qinghua, et al. Multi-market Coupling Simulation and System Resilience Evaluation Method Considering Dynamic Evolution of Multiple Heterogeneous Entities With Coal-fired Power, Renewable Energy and Energy Storage[J]. 2026, 46(18): 6580-6596.DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.260151.
Multi-market Coupling Simulation and System Resilience Evaluation Method Considering Dynamic Evolution of Multiple Heterogeneous Entities With Coal-fired Power, Renewable Energy and Energy Storage
摘要
为破解多市场耦合环境下能源系统复杂性、不确定性与主体异质性带来的韧性评估难题,该文提出一种火电-新能源-储能多异质主体动态演化下的多市场耦合仿真与系统韧性评估方法。首先,构建火电、新能源、储能3类异质主体的动态演化模型,整合技术状态、燃料库存、碳配额等多维状态变量,精准刻画其在电-煤-碳多市场中的决策行为与状态变迁规律;其次,基于平均场博弈理论建立多市场耦合仿真框架,通过平均场分布实现大规模异质主体的降维建模,揭示宏观系统状态与微观主体决策的双向互动机制;进而,设计包含适应性、恢复力、经济性的三维韧性评估指标体系,结合风险厌恶型部分观测最优控制框架,量化主体决策对系统韧性的影响路径;最后,提出基于交替方向乘子法(alternating direction method of multipliers,ADMM)的分布式求解算法,保障仿真效率与精度,并以我国西北地区电网为案例,设置电煤供应平稳、短缺及外部冲击等多场景开展验证。仿真结果表明,该方法能有效捕捉异质主体动态演化特征与多市场价格联动效应,精准评估系统在多重扰动下的韧性表现,为能源市场运营监管与韧性提升策略制定提供科学支撑。
Abstract
To tackle resilience assessment challenges in complex
uncertain
and heterogeneous energy systems within a multi-market environment
this paper introduces an integrated resilience assessment and simulation approach for energy supply chains
integrating dynamic evolution of heterogeneous entities and multi-market collaboration. First
a dynamic evolution model is established for three heterogeneous entities (coal-fired power
renewable energy
and energy storage) by integrating multi-dimensional state variables (e.g.
technical status
fuel inventory
carbon quotas)
capturing their decision- making and state-transition dynamics across interconnected electricity-coal-carbon markets. Second
leveraging mean field game theory
a multi-market coupled simulation framework is developed
reducing dimensionality through mean field distribution to reveal bidirectional interactions between macro-system states and micro-entity decisions. Additionally
a three-dimensional resilience evaluation index system (adaptability
resilience
economy) is integrated into a risk-averse
partially observed optimal control framework for quantifying the impact of entity decisions on system resilience. Finally
a distributed solution algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is proposed in order to ensure simulation efficiency and accuracy. Using the Northwest China power grid as a case study
scenarios such as stable coal supply
fuel shortages
and external shocks are tested. The results show that the proposed method effectively captures dynamic entity evolution and multi-market price linkages
accurately evaluates system resilience under diverse disturbances
and provides scientific support for energy market regulation and resilience-enhancement strategies.