HU Chenxi, FENG Shuanglei, LIU Feng, et al. Theory of Supply-demand Balance in Renewable-dominated Power Systems (Part II): System Planning Under Decision-dependent Uncertainty[J]. 2026, 46(15): 6364-6378.
DOI:
HU Chenxi, FENG Shuanglei, LIU Feng, et al. Theory of Supply-demand Balance in Renewable-dominated Power Systems (Part II): System Planning Under Decision-dependent Uncertainty[J]. 2026, 46(15): 6364-6378.DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.252558.
Theory of Supply-demand Balance in Renewable-dominated Power Systems (Part II): System Planning Under Decision-dependent Uncertainty
传统规划通常将资源禀赋、负荷水平等不确定参数视为外生变量,规划模型主要在给定风险条件下优化系统结构与运行成本。随着可再生能源规模扩大,场址选择、容量配置和技术路径等规划决策会改变系统不确定性的统计特征,使不确定性呈现出决策依赖特性。决策依赖不确定性(decision-dependent uncertainty,DDU)反映了规划决策与系统不确定性之间的内生耦合关系,意味着不确定性不再仅是外部给定的约束,也可能成为受规划决策影响的系统属性。由此,规划问题由给定不确定性条件下的成本优化,拓展为同时考虑规划决策对不确定性结构影响的协同优化。为刻画这一机制并将其纳入规划建模,该文首先从理论层面分析 DDU 的存在条件,揭示规划决策与不确定性之间的作用机理及反馈关系。在方法层面,建立规划决策与系统不确定性之间的定量映射关系,提出风险传播与不确定性响应的度量方法,并针对 DDU 引起的非凸耦合、高维计算复杂性与收敛不稳定等问题,构建统一的求解框架。算例结果表明,考虑 DDU 的规划方法可主动调控系统不确定性结构,降低规划方案的潜在损失,其收益主要源于对不确定性结构的优化,而非单纯的容量扩张。文中揭示高比例可再生能源系统中规划决策与不确定性之间的双向反馈机制,为电力系统规划从被动适应不确定性向主动调控不确定性结构转变提供一定理论基础与方法支撑。
Abstract
Conventional planning generally treats uncertain parameters
such as resource availability and load levels
as exogenous variables
with planning models primarily optimizing overall system configuration and operating costs under prescribed risk conditions. As renewable energy deployment expands
planning decisions such as site selection
capacity allocation
and system reinforcement can alter the statistical characteristics of system uncertainty itself through their effects on system structure
thereby making uncertainty decision-dependent. Decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) captures the endogenous coupling between planning decisions and system uncertainty
indicating that uncertainty is no longer merely an externally given constraint but may also become a system attribute influenced by planning decisions. Accordingly
the planning problem is extended from cost optimization under prescribed uncertainty to coordinated optimization that accounts for the impact of planning decisions on uncertainty structures. To characterize this mechanism and incorporate it into planning models
this paper first analyzes the conditions under which DDU emerges and reveals the interaction mechanisms and feedback relationships between planning decisions and uncertainty. Then
it establishes a quantitative mapping between planning decisions and system uncertainty and develops quantitative measures of risk propagation and uncertainty response. Based on these formulations
a unified computational framework is constructed to address the nonconvex coupling
computational complexity in high-dimensional settings
and convergence instability introduced by DDU. Case studies show that planning methods considering DDU can actively reshape the system’s uncertainty structure and reduce the potential risks associated with planning schemes under future operating conditions. These benefits mainly arise from optimizing the uncertainty structure. This paper reveals the bidirectional feedback mechanism between planning decisions and uncertainty in renewable-dominated power systems
providing theoretical foundations and practical methods for shifting power system planning from passive adaptation to uncertainty toward proactive regulation of uncertainty structures.