Substation Main Electrical Connection Operational Risk Assessment Method Based on Time-varying Graph

YANG Huiyuan; TANG Aihong; LIU Shouwen; ZHANG Kanjun; LI Xinran; WANG Wenhao

doi:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.242807

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Substation Main Electrical Connection Operational Risk Assessment Method Based on Time-varying Graph

更新时间：2026-10-12

- Substation Main Electrical Connection Operational Risk Assessment Method Based on Time-varying Graph
- Vol. 46, Issue 9, Pages: 3642-3653(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 1 武汉理工大学自动化学院,湖北省,武汉市,430070
  2. 2 国网湖北省电力有限公司,湖北省,武汉市,430077
  3. 3 国网湖北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,湖北省,武汉市,430077
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.242807
  CLC：
- Received：05 May 2026，
  
  Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
YANG Huiyuan, TANG Aihong, LIU Shouwen, et al. Substation Main Electrical Connection Operational Risk Assessment Method Based on Time-varying Graph[J]. 2026, 46(9): 3642-3653.
DOI：

YANG Huiyuan, TANG Aihong, LIU Shouwen, et al. Substation Main Electrical Connection Operational Risk Assessment Method Based on Time-varying Graph[J]. 2026, 46(9): 3642-3653. DOI： 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.242807.

摘要

在针对电气主接线运行风险评估的研究中，常规方法仅以连通性缺失作为故障判别条件，难以量化设备负载能力对运行风险的影响。为解决这一问题，该文提出电气主接线的时变容量网络等效方法。在此基础上，结合设备多运行状态模型，基于序贯蒙特卡洛抽样思想，提出时变容量网络状态持续时间抽样方法。此外，基于改进的Dinic算法，提出电气主接线最大流计算方法，实现运行风险指标的定量计算。利用IEEE-RBTS和IEEE-RTS96算例系统，验证所提方法的有效性与先进性。结果表明，运行阶段负荷水平的变化将显著影响电气主接线的运行风险，所提方法能帮助运行人员掌握变电站的运行风险变化规律。

Abstract

In the study of operational risk assessment for electrical main wiring

conventional methods only consider the lack of connectivity as a fault criterion

making it difficult to quantify the impact of equipment load capacity on operational risk. To address this issue

this paper first proposes a time-varying capacity network equivalence method for electrical main wiring. Building on this

and incorporating a multi-operational state model of equipment

a time-varying capacity network state duration sampling method is introduced based on the idea of sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Additionally

this paper introduces a maximum flow calculation method for electrical main wiring based on an improved Dinic algorithm

enabling the quantitative calculation of operational risk indicators. The effectiveness and advancement of the proposed methods are validated using the IEEE-RBTS and IEEE-RTS96 test systems. The results show that changes in load levels during the operational phase significantly affect the operational risk of electrical main wiring

and the methods proposed in this paper can help operators understand the variation patterns of operational risks in substations.

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