SUN Kai, HAO Yongsheng, HUA Shan, et al. Integrated Prediction Model for Superheater Wall Temperature Based on Gaussian Mixture Model Clustering and Attention Mechanism[J]. 2025, (24): 9644-9654.
DOI:
SUN Kai, HAO Yongsheng, HUA Shan, et al. Integrated Prediction Model for Superheater Wall Temperature Based on Gaussian Mixture Model Clustering and Attention Mechanism[J]. 2025, (24): 9644-9654.DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.242238.
Integrated Prediction Model for Superheater Wall Temperature Based on Gaussian Mixture Model Clustering and Attention Mechanism
针对煤电机组锅炉后屏过热器管道在调峰调频过程中易发生超温的问题,该文提出一种基于高斯混合模型(Gaussian mixture model,GMM)聚类和注意力机制的过热器壁温集成预测模型。首先,利用最大信息系数(maximum information coefficient,MIC)和关联性特征选择算法(correlation-based feature selection,CFS)筛出关键输入变量;然后,通过GMM聚类得到不同工况下的子集;基于并联的时间卷积网络和长短时记忆网络(parallel architectural-temporal convolutional network-long short-term memory,PA-TCN-LSTM)对相应子集构建单一预测模型;最后,结合注意力机制对单一预测模型进行融合,构建集成预测模型。仿真实验表明,集成预测模型相比单一模型在均方根误差(root mean squared error,RMSE)和平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)上分别提升20%和18%,在不同工况下的泛化能力提升66%,全工况下平均壁温预测误差1.44℃,满足工业精度要求。该方案能有效提升预测模型对工况变化的适应能力,为煤电机组在复杂工况下的安全稳定运行提供技术支持,具有重要的应用价值。
Abstract
Aiming at the over-temperature problem that is prone to occur in the rear screen superheater piping in the boiler during the peaking and frequency adjustment process of coal power units
this paper proposes an integrated reheater wall temperature prediction model based on Gaussian mixture model (GMM) clustering and attention mechanism. First
the key feature variables are screened by maximum information coefficient (MIC) and correlation-based feature selection (CFS) algorithms Then
the dataset is divided into subsets corresponding to different operational conditions by using the GMM clustering algorithm. Independent prediction models are constructed by using the parallel architectural-temporal convolutional network-long short-term memory (PA-TCN-LSTM). Finally
an integrated prediction model is developed by combining the attention mechanism with the fusion of a single prediction model. Simulation results show that the integrated model he root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) by 20% and 18% compared to single models
with a 66% improvement in generalization ability across different operational conditions. The average absolute error across all conditions is 1.44℃
meeting industrial precision requirements. This scheme effectively improves the adaptability of the prediction model to changes in working conditions
provides technical support for the safe and stable operation of coal power units under complex working conditions