Probabilistic AC Power Flow Modeling and Analytical Calculation Methods for Distribution Networks Based on the Quadratic Form of Random Variables (Part I): Derivation From Voltage to Power
|更新时间:2026-10-05
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Probabilistic AC Power Flow Modeling and Analytical Calculation Methods for Distribution Networks Based on the Quadratic Form of Random Variables (Part I): Derivation From Voltage to Power
WU Han. Probabilistic AC Power Flow Modeling and Analytical Calculation Methods for Distribution Networks Based on the Quadratic Form of Random Variables (Part I): Derivation From Voltage to Power[J]. 2026, 46(3): 928-941.
DOI:
WU Han. Probabilistic AC Power Flow Modeling and Analytical Calculation Methods for Distribution Networks Based on the Quadratic Form of Random Variables (Part I): Derivation From Voltage to Power[J]. 2026, 46(3): 928-941.DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.242015.
Probabilistic AC Power Flow Modeling and Analytical Calculation Methods for Distribution Networks Based on the Quadratic Form of Random Variables (Part I): Derivation From Voltage to Power
Probabilistic load flow plays a crucial role in the uncertainty analysis of distribution networks with a high proportion of distributed renewable energy sources and highly stochastic loads. However
due to the non-linearity of flow equations and probability distributions
as well as the correlation between random variables
analytical computation of probabilistic load flow is challenging. Existing methods often derive analytical expressions for probabilistic load flow from linear flow equations. However
the high resistance- reactance ratio of distribution networks makes it difficult for linear flow equations to accurately describe the relationships between flow variables
leading to distorted probability distributions. To address this issue
this paper presents an AC probabilistic load flow model for distribution network and an analytical computation method that can consider both the non-linearity of flows and the correlation of node power injection by expressing the AC flow equations as a quadratic form of node voltages and utilizing the relationship between the normal distribution and the generalized non-central chi-squared distribution. Firstly
it is proven that when node voltages follow a multi-variate normal distribution
the power flow quantities such as node power injection
line power
and network losses
follow a generalized non-central chi-squared distribution. Secondly
accurate expressions for the mean
variance
covariance
moment generating function
and characteristic function of power flow quantities are provided. Lastly
considering the complexity of the probability distribution function of power flow quantities
which makes it difficult to solve directly
a numerical method for calculating their probability density function and cumulative distribution function is proposed. Case studies based on the IEEE 33 bus distribution networks demonstrate that the proposed AC probabilistic load flow analytical algorithm can accurately describe the probabilistic relationships between node voltages and power quantities
and is suitable for calculating the probability distribution of distribution network flows in highly stochastic environments.