LI Xinzhi, LIU Nian, DING Yi, et al. A Locational Marginal Price Decoupling Forecasting Method Based on Evolutionary Learning Improved Stacking[J]. 2025, (23): 9177-9189.
DOI:
LI Xinzhi, LIU Nian, DING Yi, et al. A Locational Marginal Price Decoupling Forecasting Method Based on Evolutionary Learning Improved Stacking[J]. 2025, (23): 9177-9189. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.241132.
A Locational Marginal Price Decoupling Forecasting Method Based on Evolutionary Learning Improved Stacking
The electricity market is an important support for the construction of new power systems
and the locational marginal price (LMP) is the benchmark for transaction pricing in the electricity market
representing the market value of busbars. To further improve the prediction accuracy of LMP
this paper proposes a LMP decoupling forecasting method based on Evolutionary Learning improved Stacking. The method considers the pricing mechanism of LMP
and analyzes the characteristics of the energy component
congestion component
and marginal loss component of LMP. This paper also considers the coupling between congestion component and marginal loss component of LMP in different regions
and conducts a quantitative analysis of the feature contribution degree. Considering the differences in observation data and model training principles among basic algorithms
this paper combines multiple types of AI algorithms into a library of base learners for Stacking
including tree-based algorithms
support vector machines
neural networks
nearest neighbor algorithms
and regression-based algorithms. An evolutionary learning mechanism is deployed to optimize the selection of base learner combinations to ensure the whole model efficiency and accuracy. A case study conducted by using real data from the New England region proves its accuracy and universality
indicating its effectiveness in serving as a guide for electricity market reform in China.