LI Hongzhong, NI Zhang, ZHOU Yulong. Risk Analysis of Overhead Line Failure Under Typhoon Disaster (Ⅱ): Revised Failure Probability Model Considering the Degradation Process[J]. 2025, (23): 9213-9224.
DOI:
LI Hongzhong, NI Zhang, ZHOU Yulong. Risk Analysis of Overhead Line Failure Under Typhoon Disaster (Ⅱ): Revised Failure Probability Model Considering the Degradation Process[J]. 2025, (23): 9213-9224. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.241114.
Risk Analysis of Overhead Line Failure Under Typhoon Disaster (Ⅱ): Revised Failure Probability Model Considering the Degradation Process
As overhead lines are prone to failure under typhoon disasters
it is crucial to conduct real-time failure risk analysis for overhead lines. As the second paper in the series
this paper continues to take overhead lines under typhoon disaster as the research object
introduces the degradation process into the risk analysis of overhead lines based on the theory of "competitive failure"
and modifies the comprehensive failure probability model of overhead lines under typhoon disaster. Firstly
the degradation process of overhead lines is described as a combination of natural degradation process and instantaneous degradation process
and the natural degradation model is modified for different structures of overhead lines. At the same time
the transient degradation process of overhead lines is re-described based on fatigue loss theory. Finally
based on the competitive failure theory
the failure probability correction model of overhead line under the influence of typhoon disaster is established
which is further combined with the description of the risk division of transient impact at the corresponding moment
and the real-time risk of overhead line is comprehensively evaluated from the perspective of the effect of transient impact. The results of example analysis show that the fault probability correction model proposed in this paper is more suitable for fault risk analysis of overhead lines under typhoon disaster.