YANG Mao, ZHANG Shutian, WANG Bo, et al. Short-term Wind Power Interval Prediction Based on Weighted Gated Recurrent Conformalized Quantile Regression[J]. 2025, 45(19): 7565-7574.
DOI:
YANG Mao, ZHANG Shutian, WANG Bo, et al. Short-term Wind Power Interval Prediction Based on Weighted Gated Recurrent Conformalized Quantile Regression[J]. 2025, 45(19): 7565-7574. DOI: 10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240863.
Short-term Wind Power Interval Prediction Based on Weighted Gated Recurrent Conformalized Quantile Regression
Accurate interval prediction is helpful for risk analysis
enabling more reasonable decisions in power grid dispatch. Aiming at the shortcomings of conformalized quantile regression algorithm
this paper proposes a short-term wind power interval prediction method based on weighted gated recurrent conformalized quantile regression. Firstly
the quantile gated recurrent unit is used to fit the initial prediction interval in the training stage. The non-conformity and their confidence quantiles are then calculated in the calibration stage according to the non-conformity function. Then
in the test stage
the Jensen-Shannon divergency between the test set and the calibration set is calculated and weighted to the confidence quantile as the distribution weight. Therefore
a weighted confidence quantile is formed instead of the confidence quantile directly obtained from the calibration set. The final prediction interval is the algebraic sum of the initial prediction interval and the weighted confidence quantile. Finally
taking the operation data of wind farm in MengXi
China as an example
the reliability
validity and efficiency of proposed method is examined.