老化模型是评估质子交换膜燃料电池(proton exchange membrane fuel cell,PEMFC)健康状态(state of health,SoH)和剩余使用寿命(remaining useful life,RUL)的关键,然而,其因诸多原因导致的不确定性降低了模型精度和可信度。因此,提出一种模型不确定度和SoH同时量化(model uncertainty and SoH simultaneous quantification,MUSQ)算法,用于指导和修正卷积神经网络-长短期记忆(convolutional neural networks-long short-term memory,CNN-LSTM)神经网络混合模型的长期预测,构建全新的RUL混合预测框架。采用动态负载循环耐久性实验数据,将该混合预测方法与扩展卡尔曼滤波算法、自适应扩展卡尔曼滤波算法、MUSQ算法、LSTM神经网络、CNN-LSTM混合模型等进行对比,该方法具有最优的长期预测性能和RUL估计精度。在负载电流为14.85 A的工况下,该方法累计误差分别降低49.64%、61.33%、30.65%、57.00%和52.90%。
Abstract
The aging model is critical for evaluating the state of health (SoH) and remaining useful life (RUL) of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). However
uncertainty
caused by various reasons
reduces the accuracy and reliability of the model. Therefore
a model uncertainty and SoH simultaneous quantification (MUSQ) algorithm is proposed to guide and correct the long-term prediction of the convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) neural network hybrid model and a new RUL hybrid prediction framework is constructed. Dynamic load cycle durability test data are used
and this hybrid prediction method is compared with the extended Kalman filtering algorithm
adaptive extended Kalman filtering algorithm
MUSQ algorithm
LSTM neural network
and CNN-LSTM hybrid model
etc. This method has the best long-term prediction performance and RUL estimation accuracy. Under the operating condition of a load current of 14.85 A