质子交换膜燃料电池(proton exchange membrane fuel cell,PEMFC)的耐久性不足是困扰其自身大规模商业化的问题之一。该文提出一种贝叶斯优化(bayesian optimization,BO)算法优化回声状态网络(echo state network,ESN)模型进行PEMFC性能退化预测。通过BO获取ESN模型的最优超参数组,利用ESN模型预测PEMFC电压。此外,电压下降是PEMFC性能退化的重要表征之一,电压下降迅速的地方包含更多的性能退化特征信息,需要进行更频繁的采样;电压下降程度较小的地方包含较少的性能退化特征信息,需要进行较低频率采样。因此,该文提出一种自适应模糊规则采样(adaptive fuzzy sampling,AFS)对数据集进行采样提升PEMFC预测精度。结果表明,在静态工况中,BO-ESN的均方根误差(root mean square error,RMSE)和平均百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error,MAPE)分别比ESN模型降低52.4%和63.6%。经AFS采样后BO-ESN模型的RMSE和MAPE分别比固定时间间隔采样降低49.8%和54.5%。在动态工况中,BO-ESN模型相比于ESN模型的RMSE和MAPE分别降低13.4%和7.96%。该方法具有较好的PEMFC性能退化预测性能。
Abstract
The insufficient durability of proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) has remained one of the challenges hindering their large-scale commercialization. This paper proposed a method utilizing Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm was to optimize the echo state network (ESN) model for predicting the degradation of PEMFC performance. BO was employed to obtain the optimal hyperparameters for the ESN model
which was then used to predict the voltage of PEMFC. Additionally
a decline in voltage serves as a significant indicator of PEMFC performance degradation
with areas of rapid voltage decline containing more information on performance degradation features
necessitating more frequent sampling. Conversely
areas with minor voltage declines contain less information on performance degradation features
requiring lower frequency sampling. Thus
this paper introduces an adaptive fuzzy sampling (AFS) method for dataset sampling to enhance the prediction accuracy of PEMFC performance. Experimental results show that
in static conditions
the BO-ESN model reduces the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) by 52.4% and 63.6%
respectively
compared to the ESN model. After applying AFS sampling
the RMSE and MAPE of the BO-ESN model are further reduced by 49.8% and 54.5%
respectively
compared to fixed interval sampling. In dynamic conditions
the RMSE and MAPE of the BO-ESN model decrease by 13.4% and 7.96%
respectively
compared to the ESN model. According to the experimental results
this method demonstrates superior performance in predicting the performance degradation of PEMFC.