Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China

Guohui XIE; Nana LI; Bo YUAN

doi:10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174

English Version Reader LoginJournal Login

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China

New and Renewable Energy | 更新时间：2025-07-04

- Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China
- Power Generation Technology Vol. 41, Issue 6, Pages: 631-637(2020)
- 作者机构：
  
  国网能源研究院有限公司, 北京市昌平区 102209
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  National Natural Science Foundation of China(71471058)
- DOI：10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174
  CLC： TK81;TM73
- Received：20 May 2020，
  
  Published：31 December 2020
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Guohui XIE, Nana LI, Bo YUAN. Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2020, 41(6): 631-637.
DOI：

Guohui XIE, Nana LI, Bo YUAN. Analysis Methods and Model of New Energy Developing Roadmap in China[J]. Power Generation Technology, 2020, 41(6): 631-637. DOI： 10.12096/j.2096-4528.pgt.19174.

摘要

为科学制定我国中长期新能源发展规划，需要开展新能源开发路线图研究。根据我国能源发展战略和新能源发展的特点，建立了开发总量规模测算、开发时序编制、开发布局优化相应的分析模型，提出了涵盖新能源资源潜力评估、开发总量规模、开发时序、开发布局的一整套开发路线图分析方法，并实证分析了2030/2050年我国风电、光伏发电、光热发电的开发总量、时序和布局。研究结果表明：未来我国新能源仍将加快大规模发展，2030年后新能源将从替代能源向主导电源转变，风电布局将主要集中在“三北”地区，太阳能发电呈现出集中式开发和分布式利用相结合的特点。

Abstract

Studying on new energy developing roadmap helps to provide the important reference for the formulation of medium and long-term development plan of new energy in China. This paper put forward a set of analysis methods and models of development roadmap involving resources evaluations

total capacity

developing sequences and layout according to energy development strategy and characteristics of new energy development in China. The wind

photovoltaic and photothermal power generation developing capacity sequences and layout in 2030 and 2050 were also studied. The results show that there will be a rapid speed for China's new energy development

pushing the new energy to become the dominated power after 2030. Wind power will be concentered in "Three North" areas

while the solar power presents a combination of centralized development and distributed utilization.

关键词

Keywords

references

国网能源研究院.中国新能源发电分析报告[M].北京:中国电力出版社, 2019:32-35.

State Grid Energy Research Institute.China's new energy power generation analysis report[M].Beijing:China Electric Power Press, 2019:32-35.

国家电网有限公司.国家电网有限公司服务新能源发展报告[R].北京: 国家电网有限公司, 2019.

State Grid Corporation of China. State grid service new energy development report[R].Beijing: State Grid Corporation of China, 2019.

张运洲, 刘俊, 张晋芳, 等.中国新能源"后补贴时期"发展分析[J].中国电力, 2019, 52(4):1-7.

ZHANG Y Z, LIU J, ZHANG J F, et al.Study on the development of renewable energy during "post-subsidy period" in China[J].Electric Power, 2019, 52(4):1-7.

弭辙, 张晋芳, 刘俊, 等.面向促进新能源消纳的源网荷贡献度分解算法[J].发电技术, 2019, 40(6):509-515.

MI Z, ZHANG J F, LIU J, et al.Decomposition algorithm of source-grid-load contribution for promoting renewable energy accommodation[J].Power Generation Technology, 2019, 40(6):509-515.

刘德旭, 刘艳, 潘永旗, 等.基于可再生能源发电优先消纳的电力电量平衡模型研究[J].电网与清洁能源, 2020, 36(1):64-71.

LIU D X, LIU Y, PAN Y Q, et al.Research on power balance model based on priority consumption of renewable energy power generation[J].Power System and Clean Energy, 2020, 36(1):64-71.

刘瑞丰, 王睿, 刘庆, 等.促进新能源发展的西北电力调峰容量市场机制初探[J].电网与清洁能源, 2020, 36(9):93-99.

LIU R F, WANG R, LIU Q, et al. Research on the mechanism of peak-regulating capacity market in northwest China to promote the development of new energy[J].Power System and Clean Energy, 2020, 36(9):93-99.

谢国辉, 樊昊.太阳能光热发电技术成熟度预测模型[J].山东大学学报(工学版), 2017, 47(6):32-37.

XIE G H, FAN H.Prediction model of concentrating solar power technology maturity[J].Journal of Shandong University (Engineering Science), 2017, 47(6):32-37.

中国气象局.中国风能资源评估报告[M].北京:气象出版社, 2017:114.

China Meteorological Administration.China wind energy resource assessment report[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2017:114.

中国气象局.太阳能资源评估报告[M].北京:气象出版社, 2017:125-126.

China Meteorological Administration.Solar energy resource assessment report[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2017:125-126.

程路, 张运洲, 辛颂旭.能源消费基数增加后实现2020年非化石能源占比15%目标分析[J].中国电力, 2015, 48(9):5-8.

CHENG L, ZHANG Y Z, XIN S X.Analysis on the target of achieving 15% non-fossil energy by 2020 after increasing the energy consumption base[J].Electric Power, 2015, 48(9):5-8.

国网能源研究院.中国能源电力发展展望[M].北京:中国电力出版社, 2018:124-125.

State Grid Energy Research Institute.China's energy and electricity development prospects[M].Beijing:China Electric Power Press, 2018:124-125.

刘志超, 王洪彬, 沙浩, 等.我国风电利用技术现状及其前景分析[J].发电技术, 2019, 40(4):389-394.

LIU Z C, WANG H B, SHA H, et al. Status and prospect analysis of wind power utilization technology in China[J].Power Generation Technology, 2019, 40(4):389-394.

邓忻依, 艾欣.分布式光伏储能系统综合效益评估与激励机制[J].发电技术, 2018, 39(1):30-36.

DENG X Y, AI X.Comprehensive benefit assessment and incentive mechanism of distributed photovoltaic energy storage system[J].Power Generation Technology, 2018, 39(1):30-36.

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Recent Developments on the Application of Chloride Molten Salt Heat Storage Technology to New Energy Power Generation

Related Author

LUO Bin

BAI Xiaolong

ZANG Tianlei

HUANG Yan

ZHANG Lin

LI Meng

ZHANG Xuexia

JIANG Yonglong

Related Institution

Tangshan Institute, Southwest Jiaotong University

Chengdu Chengdian Electric Power Engineering Design Co., Ltd.

Shandong Suoxiang Intelligent Technology Company Limited

Weihai Innovation Research Institute, Qingdao University

College of Electrical Engineering, Qingdao University

AI问答

⁰