Probabilistic assessment of supply-demand balance capability in new power systems for extreme high temperature scenarios

郑海峰; 刘青; 姚力; 张煜; 邹艺超; 胡臻达; 王阳; 代潭龙

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504041

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Probabilistic assessment of supply-demand balance capability in new power systems for extreme high temperature scenarios

更新时间：2026-02-03

- Probabilistic assessment of supply-demand balance capability in new power systems for extreme high temperature scenarios
- Vol. 59, Issue 1, Pages: 44-56(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京,102209
  2. 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,福建,福州,350003
  3. 国家气候中心,北京,100081
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504041
  CLC：
- Published Online：13 January 2026，
  
  Published：13 January 2026
- 稿件说明：
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郑海峰, 刘青, 姚力, 张煜, 邹艺超, 胡臻达, 王阳, 代潭龙. 面向极端高温场景的新型电力系统供需平衡能力概率化评估[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(1): 44-56.

郑海峰, 刘青, 姚力, et al. Probabilistic assessment of supply-demand balance capability in new power systems for extreme high temperature scenarios[J]. 2026, 59(1): 44-56.
郑海峰, 刘青, 姚力, 张煜, 邹艺超, 胡臻达, 王阳, 代潭龙. 面向极端高温场景的新型电力系统供需平衡能力概率化评估[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(1): 44-56. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504041.

郑海峰, 刘青, 姚力, et al. Probabilistic assessment of supply-demand balance capability in new power systems for extreme high temperature scenarios[J]. 2026, 59(1): 44-56. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202504041.

摘要

全球变暖背景下，极端高温天气发生的频次、强度和影响范围持续扩大，叠加空调保有量持续提升、风光装机占比不断提高，极端高温对新型电力系统电力供需影响日益显著。提出一种新型电力系统供需平衡能力概率化评估方法，应用于中长期电力系统生产模拟。首先，基于三维高斯Copula函数构建风光荷联合场景集，刻画变量间相互关系；然后，结合电力系统生产模拟模型，以运行成本最小为目标，优化机组出力与需求侧资源调用；最后，建立涵盖安全充裕、灵活可控、清洁低碳、经济高效的供需平衡能力评估指标体系，采用层次分析法设置权重，并通过核密度估计生成供需平衡能力概率密度曲线，揭示其概率分布特征，量化不同平衡能力水平的出现可能性。将该方法应用于中国某省，面向2030年、2040年、2050年开展研究，结果表明，新型电力系统供需平衡能力总体提升，主要是灵活可控、清洁低碳等维度指标贡献，其中到2050年该省抽蓄储能利用率提升至34.6%，单位电量碳排放强度降至0.27 kg/(kW·h)；安全充裕、经济高效水平有所降低，其中到2050年平均备用率降至7.1%，平均度电成本升至0.56元/(kW·h)。

Abstract

Under the background of global warming

the frequency

intensity and impact range of extreme high temperature weather continue to expand. Coupled with the continuous increase in the number of air conditioners and the increasing proportion of installed capacity of wind and solar power

the impact of extreme high temperature on the power supply-demand of new power systems is becoming increasingly significant. A probabilistic assessment method for supply-demand balance capacity of new power systems is proposed and applied to the medium and long-term power system production simulation. Firstly

a set of joint wind-solar-load scenarios is constructed based on a three-dimensional Gaussian Copula function to characterize the relationship between variables. Then

integrated with a power system production simulation model

the dispatch strategies of generation units and the utilization of demand-side resources are optimized aiming at minimizing the operational costs. Finally

an assessment index system for supply-demand balance capability is established

encompassing the dimensions of security adequacy

flexibility controllability

cleanliness low-carbon

and economic efficiency.The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is employed to set the weights for these indicators

and the kernel density estimation (KDE) is adopted to generate the probability density curve of the supply-demand balance capability

which reveals its probabilistic distribution characteristics and quantifies the likelihood of occurrence for different levels of balance capability. This method is applied to a province in South China to conduct studies for the years 2030

2040

and 2050. The results indicate an overall enhancement in the supply-demand balance capability of the new power systems

primarily driven by improvements in the flexibility controllability and cleanliness low-carbon dimensions. The specific outcomes of the province by 2050 include an increase in the utilization rate of pumped storage to 34.6% and a reduction in the carbon emission intensity per unit of electricity to 0.27 kg/(kW·h). Conversely

a decline is observed in the security adequacy and economic efficiency dimensions. By 2050

the average reserve margin is projected to decrease to 7.1%

while the average levelized cost of electricity is expected to rise to 0.56 RMB yuan/(kW·h)

关键词

Keywords

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