Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism

YUAN Shuguang; ZHAO Xiaoxi; WANG Huaqing; LIU Jianye

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410092

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Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism

更新时间：2026-08-04

- Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism
- Vol. 59, Issue 5, Pages: 9-19(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 内蒙古工业大学经济管理学院,内蒙古,呼和浩特,010051
  2. 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京,102209
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410092
  CLC：
- Online First：15 May 2026，
  
  Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
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苑曙光, 赵小溪, 王华卿, 刘键烨. 容量电价机制作用下煤电项目亏损风险区域识别研究[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(5): 9-19.

YUAN Shuguang, ZHAO Xiaoxi, WANG Huaqing, et al. Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism[J]. 2026, 59(5): 9-19.
苑曙光, 赵小溪, 王华卿, 刘键烨. 容量电价机制作用下煤电项目亏损风险区域识别研究[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(5): 9-19. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410092.

YUAN Shuguang, ZHAO Xiaoxi, WANG Huaqing, et al. Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity price mechanism[J]. 2026, 59(5): 9-19. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202410092.

摘要

基于容量电价政策导向，在充分评价各区域煤电项目亏损风险区域的基础上优化煤电项目的市场化机制，对构建清洁、安全、经济、灵活的新型电力系统具有重要意义。本文以3类典型煤电机组为研究对象，引入等效机组概念提出改进区域煤电平准化度电成本（levelized cost of electricity，LCOE）模型，测算并比较引入容量电价前后省域煤电机组度电成本。在此基础上，设计煤电机组投资收益率模型，依据现行上网电价并结合容量电价政策识别区域煤电机组的收益—风险区域。结果显示：容量电价机制引入后，对区域煤电平准化发电成本产生了显著影响，推动该成本水平整体下降；与此同时，区域煤电机组的平均收益区间向上调整。值得注意的是，西部与东北地区的煤电项目收益水平仍较低，这表明此类项目在运营过程中仍面临亏损可能性，需对其经营风险予以关注。研究结果可为区域煤电价格制定提供理论支撑，同时也为煤电市场化改革提供决策依据。

Abstract

Guided by the capacity price policy

it is of great significance for building a clean

safe

economical and flexible new power system to optimize the market-oriented mechanism of coal-fired power projects on the basis of fully evaluating the loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects in various regions. Taking three typical coal-fired power units as research objects

this paper proposes an improved coal-fired power regional levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model by introducing the concept of equivalent units

so as to calculate and compare the LCOE of provincial coal-fired power units before and after the introduction of capacity price. On this basis

an investment return rate model for coal-fired power units is constructed

and the return-risk zones of regional coal-fired power units are calculated according to the current on-grid electricity price combined with the capacity price policy. The results show that the introduction of the capacity price mechanism has exerted a significant impact on the regional LCOE of coal-fired power

driving an overall declines in this cost level. Meanwhile

the average return range of regional coal-fired power units has been adjusted upward. Notably

the return levels of coal-fired power projects in western and northeastern China remain relatively low

indicating that such projects still face the possibility of losses during operation and their operational risks require attention. The research results can provide theoretical support for the formulation of regional coal-fired power prices and also serve as a decision-making basis for the market-oriented reform of coal-fired power.

关键词

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references

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