Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries

Wei TANG; Zhao XU; Baoguo SHAN; Yu ZHANG; Peng WU; Yuelong JIA; Chuncheng ZHANG; Qingkun TAN

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159

English Version Reader LoginJournal Login

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries

Key Technology of Path Design and Plan of the New Energy Security Strategy | 更新时间：2025-06-18

- Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries
- Electric Power Vol. 54, Issue 7, Pages: 36-45(2021)
- 作者机构：
  
  国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159
  CLC：
- Received：21 May 2020，
  
  Revised：2020-10-24，
  
  Published：05 July 2021
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Wei TANG, Zhao XU, Baoguo SHAN, et al. Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries[J]. Electric power, 2021, 54(7): 36-45.
DOI：

Wei TANG, Zhao XU, Baoguo SHAN, et al. Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries[J]. Electric power, 2021, 54(7): 36-45. DOI： 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159.

摘要

“电能替代”战略的实施，推动了能源发展方式的转变，对中国未来能源高质量发展起到了至关重要的作用。首先对中国终端能源消费及能源供应情况进行分析，梳理了电能替代发展现状，提出了基于行业用能特征的电能替代基准年理论潜力测算模型。其次，耦合规划期政策、技术等因素，提出了“十四五”期间电能替代潜力测算方法。再次，基于潜力测算提出“十四五”期间替代电量规划方法。最后预判电能替代发展趋势。依托该模型方法，预判“十四五”期间国网经营区电能替代潜力超1万亿kW·h，替代规划电量约

5000

亿kW·h。研究可为政府部门出台相关政策、电网企业科学开展电能替代工作提供支撑。

Abstract

The implementation of "electric energy substitution" strategy has pushed forward the transformation of energy development mode and will play a crucial role in the future high-quality development of China's energy sector. Firstly

we investigate the existing situation of China's terminal energy consumption and energy supply and the development status quo of electric energy substitution. On this basis

a theoretical potential calculation model of electric energy substitution is proposed based on the characteristics of industrial energy consumption. Secondly

considering the policy

technology and other factors in the planning period

a calculation method of electric energy substitution potential is designed for the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. Thirdly

based on the potential calculation

a planning method of electric energy substitution is proposed for the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. Finally

the development prospect of electric energy substitution is forecasted. Based on the proposed model and methods

it is predicted that the electric energy substitution potential in the operation area of State Grid will exceed 100 billion kW·h

and the planned electric energy substitution will be around 500 billion kW·h during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. This study can provide a theoretical support for government departments to formulate relevant policies and for the power grid enterprises to implement alternative energy work.

关键词

Keywords

references

王伟, 黄珂. 电能替代战略: 机遇、挑战与政策选择[J]. 华北电力大学学报(社会科学版), 2014(4): 1–5.

WANG Wei, HUANG Ke. The strategy of electric power alteration: opportunities, challenges and policy options[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University (Social Sciences), 2014(4): 1–5.

刘俊, 徐辉, 刘亚平, 等. 甘肃省用能特点及电能替代潜力用户分析[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2016, 18(1): 44–48.

LIU Jun, XU Hui, LIU Yaping, et al . The analysis of energy consumption characteristics and electric power alternation potential in Gansu Province[J ] . Power Demand Side Management, 2016, 18(1): 44–48.

时翔, 陈明, 樊丽君, 等. 山东电能替代理论潜力预测模型及应用研究[J]. 现代国企研究, 2018(16): 197.

Shi Xiang, Chen Ming, Fan Lijun, et al . Research on potential prediction model and application of Shandong electric energy substitution theory[J ] . Modern state owned enterprise research, 2018(16): 197.

夏怀健, 张文, 贾素锦, 等. 基于大数据的电能替代潜力用户识别模型[J]. 电信科学, 2019, 35(2): 142–146.

XIA Huaijian, ZHANG Wen, JIA Sujin, et al . Power substitution potential user identification model based on big data[J ] . Telecommunications Science, 2019, 35(2): 142–146.

夏怀健, 林海英, 张文, 等. 基于多模型的区域电能替代发展潜力研究[J]. 科技管理研究, 2018, 38(4): 241–246.

XIA Huaijian, LIN Haiying, ZHANG Wen, et al . Research on development potential of regional electric energy substitution based on multi model[J ] . Science and Technology Management Research, 2018, 38(4): 241–246.

孙毅, 周爽, 单葆国, 等. 多情景下的电能替代潜力分析[J]. 电网技术, 2017, 41(1): 118–123.

SUN Yi, ZHOU Shuang, SHAN Baoguo, et al . Analysis of electric power alternative potential under multi-scenario[J ] . Power System Technology, 2017, 41(1): 118–123.

唐伟. 科学实施电能替代规划[J]. 中国电力企业管理, 2017(19): 54–55.

Tang Wei. Scientific implementation of electric energy substitution planning[J]. China electric power enterprise management, 2017(19): 54–55.

杨明, 杜萍静, 刘凤全, 等. 能源消费发展及预测方法综述[J]. 山东大学学报(工学版), 2020, 50(1): 56–62, 71.

YANG Ming, DU Pingjing, LIU Fengquan, et al . Review of energy consumption and demand forecasting methods[J ] . Journal of Shandong University (Engineering Science), 2020, 50(1): 56–62, 71.

成岭. 电能替代向多领域推进需持续攻关新技术提高效率效益[N]. 国家电网报, 2020-12-22(8).

李一磊. 电能替代潜力分析与规划研究[D]. 南京: 东南大学, 2019.

LI Yilei. Research on potential analysis and planning of electricity substitution project[D]. Nanjing: Southeast University, 2019.

王延杰, 徐国智. 基于层次分析法的区域电能替代技术选择研究[J]. 南方能源建设, 2018, 5(4): 44–49.

WANG Yanjie, XU Guozhi. Research on alternatives of regional electric energy based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Southern Energy Construction, 2018, 5(4): 44–49.

陈程, 陈星莺, 张健钊, 等. 考虑分时电价的地源热泵系统随机运行优化策略[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2019, 47(12): 57–64.

CHEN Cheng, CHEN Xingying, ZHANG Jianzhao, et al . Stochastic operational optimal strategy for ground source heat pump system under TOU price[J ] . Power System Protection and Control, 2019, 47(12): 57–64.

柴发合, 薛志钢, 支国瑞, 等. 农村居民散煤燃烧污染综合治理对策[J]. 环境保护, 2016, 44(6): 15–19.

CHAI Fahe, XUE Zhigang, ZHI Guorui, et al . Complex control measures of rural coal combustion pollution[J ] . Environmental Protection, 2016, 44(6): 15–19.

霍沫霖, 赵佳, 徐朝, 等. 中国散烧煤消费地图及影响因素研究[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(1): 139–146.

HUO Molin, ZHAO Jia, XU Zhao, et al . China scattered coal consumption map and influence factors[J ] . Electric Power, 2018, 51(1): 139–146.

武娟妮, 程亮, 逯元堂, 等. 散煤采暖清洁化替代方式的生命周期清单分析[J]. 中国环境科学,2018, 38(4): 1570–1578.

WU Juanni, CHENG Liang, LU Yuantang, et al . Life cycle inventory analysis of clean alternatives to scattered coal heating[J ] . China Environmental Science, 2018, 38(4): 1570–1578.

梁晓丽, 卢文冰, 周海明. 能源转型中的电能替代[J]. 智能电网, 2015, 3(12): 1192–1196.

LIANG Xiaoli, LU Wenbing, ZHOU Haiming. Alternative energy in the energy network[J]. Smart Grid, 2015, 3(12): 1192–1196.

叶建东, 章永洁, 蒋建云, 等. 农村型煤替代散煤采暖对比分析[J]. 建筑节能, 2016, 44(11): 102–103.

YE Jiandong, ZHANG Yongjie, JIANG Jianyun, et al . Comparison and analysis about mould coal and raw coal for rural heating[J ] . Building Energy Efficiency, 2016, 44(11): 102–103.

王志梁, 高建宏, 蒋伟. 山东省电能替代潜力及相关政策建议[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2014, 16(6): 48–49, 52.

WANG Zhiliang, GAO Jianhong, JIANG Wei. Electric power alternatives potentional in Shandong and policy analysis[J]. Power Demand Side Management, 2014, 16(6): 48–49, 52.

孙毅, 石墨, 单葆国, 等. 基于粒子群优化支持向量机的电能替代潜力分析方法[J]. 电网技术, 2017, 41(6): 1767–1771.

SUN Yi, SHI Mo, SHAN Baoguo, et al . Electric energy substitution potential analysis method based on particle swarm optimization support vector machine[J ] . Power System Technology, 2017, 41(6): 1767–1771.

单葆国, 赵佳, 贾德香, 等. 基于STIRPAT-岭回归的电能替代潜力分析方法[J]. 供用电, 2018, 35(1): 68–73.

SHAN Baoguo, ZHAO Jia, JIA Dexiang, et al . Electric power substitution potential analysis method based on STIRPAT-ridge regression[J ] . Distribution & Utilization, 2018, 35(1): 68–73.

陈星莺, 郁清云, 谢俊, 等. 基于合作博弈论的电能替代效益分摊方法[J]. 电力自动化设备, 2019, 39(3): 30–35, 44.

CHEN Xingying, YU Qingyun, XIE Jun, et al . Benefit allocation method for electric energy substitution based on cooperative game theory[J ] . Electric Power Automation Equipment, 2019, 39(3): 30–35, 44.

赵腾, 邬炜, 李隽, 等. “两个替代”趋势下的欧洲跨国电力互联通道研究[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2020, 3(6): 632–642.

ZHAO Teng, WU Wei, LI Jun, et al . Research on cross-border power interconnection channels in Europe under trend of two replacements[J ] . Journal of Global Energy Interconnection, 2020, 3(6): 632–642.

李敏. 电能替代行业现状分析与建议[J]. 设备管理与维修, 2021(2): 153–154.

于海波, 陈景琪, 刘强, 等. 电能替代行业现状分析与建议[J]. 电力需求侧管理, 2020, 22(3): 2–7.

YU Haibo, CHEN Jingqi, LIU Qiang, et al . Analysis and suggestions on the current situation of electrical energy substitution industry[J ] . Power Demand Side Management, 2020, 22(3): 2–7.

张志强, 刘占雄. 电能替代推广中的难题及解决方案[J]. 农村电工, 2017, 25(10): 8–9.

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

No data

Related Author

No data

Related Institution

No data

AI问答

⁰