Hao Chen, Jianzhong Zhang, Yubo Tao, et al. Asymmetric GARCH type models forasymmetric volatility characteristics analysisand wind power forecasting[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2019, 4(4).
DOI:
Hao Chen, Jianzhong Zhang, Yubo Tao, et al. Asymmetric GARCH type models forasymmetric volatility characteristics analysisand wind power forecasting[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2019, 4(4). DOI: 10.1186/s41601-019-0146-0.
Asymmetric GARCH type models forasymmetric volatility characteristics analysisand wind power forecasting
摘要
Wind power forecasting is of great significance to the safety
reliability and stability of power grid. In this study
the GARCH type models are employed to explore the asymmetric features of wind power time series and improved forecasting precision. Benchmark Symmetric Curve (BSC) and Asymmetric Curve Index (ACI) are proposed as new asymmetric volatility analytical tool
and several generalized applications are presented. In the case study
the utility of the GARCH-type models in depicting time-varying volatility of wind power time series is demonstrated with the asymmetry effect
verified by the asymmetric parameter estimation. With benefit of the enhanced News Impact Curve (NIC) analysis
the responses in volatility to the magnitude and the sign of shocks are emphasized. The results are all confirmed to be consistent despite varied model specifications. The case study verifies that the models considering the asymmetric effect of volatility benefit the wind power forecasting performance.
Abstract
Wind power forecasting is of great significance to the safety
reliability and stability of power grid. In this study
the GARCH type models are employed to explore the asymmetric features of wind power time series and improved forecasting precision. Benchmark Symmetric Curve (BSC) and Asymmetric Curve Index (ACI) are proposed as new asymmetric volatility analytical tool
and several generalized applications are presented. In the case study
the utility of the GARCH-type models in depicting time-varying volatility of wind power time series is demonstrated with the asymmetry effect
verified by the asymmetric parameter estimation. With benefit of the enhanced News Impact Curve (NIC) analysis
the responses in volatility to the magnitude and the sign of shocks are emphasized. The results are all confirmed to be consistent despite varied model specifications. The case study verifies that the models considering the asymmetric effect of volatility benefit the wind power forecasting performance.