Zhi Li, Lin Ye, Yongning Zhao, et al. Short-term wind power prediction basedon extreme learning machine with errorcorrection[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2016, 1(1).
DOI:
Zhi Li, Lin Ye, Yongning Zhao, et al. Short-term wind power prediction basedon extreme learning machine with errorcorrection[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2016, 1(1).DOI: 10.1186/s41601-016-0016-y.
Short-term wind power prediction basedon extreme learning machine with errorcorrection
Introduction: Large-scale integration of wind generation brings great challenges to the secure operation of the power systems due to the intermittence nature of wind. The fluctuation of the wind generation has a great impact on the unit commitment. Thus accurate wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of power system operation under uncertainties in an economical and technical way. Methods: In this paper
a combined approach based on Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and an error correction model is proposed to predict wind power in the short-term time scale. Firstly an ELM is utilized to forecast the short-term wind power. Then the ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is acquired based on processing the short-term forecasting error by persistence method. Results: For short-term forecasting
the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) doesn’t perform well. The overall NRMSE (Normalized Root Mean Square Error) of forecasting results for 66 days is 21.09 %. For the ultra-short term forecasting after error correction
most of forecasting errors lie in the interval of [−10 MW
10 MW]. The error distribution is concentrated and almost unbiased. The overall NRMSE is 5.76 %. Conclusion: The ultra-short-term wind power forecasting accuracy is further improved by using error correction in terms of normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE).
Abstract
Introduction: Large-scale integration of wind generation brings great challenges to the secure operation of the power systems due to the intermittence nature of wind. The fluctuation of the wind generation has a great impact on the unit commitment. Thus accurate wind power forecasting plays a key role in dealing with the challenges of power system operation under uncertainties in an economical and technical way. Methods: In this paper
a combined approach based on Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) and an error correction model is proposed to predict wind power in the short-term time scale. Firstly an ELM is utilized to forecast the short-term wind power. Then the ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is acquired based on processing the short-term forecasting error by persistence method. Results: For short-term forecasting
the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) doesn’t perform well. The overall NRMSE (Normalized Root Mean Square Error) of forecasting results for 66 days is 21.09 %. For the ultra-short term forecasting after error correction
most of forecasting errors lie in the interval of [−10 MW
10 MW]. The error distribution is concentrated and almost unbiased. The overall NRMSE is 5.76 %. Conclusion: The ultra-short-term wind power forecasting accuracy is further improved by using error correction in terms of normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE).
Research on Fault Diagnosis of Asymmetric Three-Level T-Type Power Converter Based on Switched Reluctance Motor
Real-Time Detection of Low-frequency Oscillations in Traction Power Supply Systems Based on Optimized Atomic Decomposition
Intelligent Self-Adjusting Protection Algorithm for Smart LVDC Distribution Networks
Dual Alternative Iteration Algorithm-Based Hierarchical MPC Strategy for Frequency Regulation Control and Active Power Allocation of Wind-storage Coupling System
Cyber-physical-transportation system based co-design of charging pricing and frequency regulation control for EVs in multi-market