杜效鹄, 周兴波, 周建平. Analysis of electricity carbon emission levels in China in background of carbon neutrality[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2024, 43(4).
DOI:
杜效鹄, 周兴波, 周建平. Analysis of electricity carbon emission levels in China in background of carbon neutrality[J]. Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2024, 43(4).DOI: 10.11660/slfdxb.20240403.
Analysis of electricity carbon emission levels in China in background of carbon neutrality
The low-carbon transformation of electricity has an overall strategic significance for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. This paper presents an analysis and predictions of the power growth process and phased development goals in China in the next 40 years
on the basis of summarizing the developing process of low-carbon electricity in the past 10 years
and taking population
urbanization
economic aggregate
and economic structure as the boundary conditions and driving forces. We examine the influence of a variety of factors on the carbon emission level-such as fossil power proportion
terminal power consumption proportion
nuclear power development scale
and Carbon Capture
Utilization
and Storage (CCUS)-with the constraints of system security and supply-demand balance. We estimate that the total carbon emission from electricity will reach its peak around 2035
6 - 6.5 billion tons
and then be reduced year by year down to a level below 1 billion tons in 2060. With the help of CCUS technology
zero electricity emissions can be achieved. Finally
in view of the long-term coexistence of demand growth and low-carbon transformation
we suggest that future power development be based on the premise of safe supply
giving priority to the development of renewable energy power
multi-energy development
and a wider range of multi-energy complementary coordinated development and complementary operation.