Integrated power sector decarbonization pathways in Indonesia: system-level assessment of green hydrogen, carbon pricing, and multi-energy transition toward 2050
|更新时间:2026-09-12
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Integrated power sector decarbonization pathways in Indonesia: system-level assessment of green hydrogen, carbon pricing, and multi-energy transition toward 2050
Clean EnergyIssue 5, (2026)
作者机构:
School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Prodia Nur Kemala, Deddy Priatmodjo Koesrindartoto, Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam, Integrated power sector decarbonization pathways in Indonesia: system-level assessment of green hydrogen, carbon pricing, and multi-energy transition toward 2050, Clean Energy, Volume 10, Issue 5, October 2026, Pages 40–53, https://doi.org/10.1093/ce/zkag037
DOI:
Prodia Nur Kemala, Deddy Priatmodjo Koesrindartoto, Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam, Integrated power sector decarbonization pathways in Indonesia: system-level assessment of green hydrogen, carbon pricing, and multi-energy transition toward 2050, Clean Energy, Volume 10, Issue 5, October 2026, Pages 40–53, https://doi.org/10.1093/ce/zkag037DOI:
Integrated power sector decarbonization pathways in Indonesia: system-level assessment of green hydrogen, carbon pricing, and multi-energy transition toward 2050
摘要
Abstract
Indonesia's second nationally determined contribution (NDC) increases ambition for greenhouse gas mitigation and places the electricity sector at the core of the pathway toward net-zero emissions (NZE) by 2060 or sooner. Achieving this target requires more than renewable energy expansion and depends on policy and technology choices that preserve system reliability and economic feasibility. This research applies the Low Emissions Analysis Platform to assess Indonesia's power sector transition from 2025 to 2050
focusing on green hydrogen
carbon pricing
and firm low-carbon supply. Five scenarios are examined: a reference baseline
carbon pricing
green hydrogen integration
a nuclear-enabled pathway
and an NDC-aligned pathway targeting a 55.0% renewable energy share by 2050 with coal phase-down. The results show that single instruments deliver limited outcomes. Carbon pricing reduces emissions by 60.6%
while hydrogen improves system flexibility and renewable integration but still leaves substantial residual emissions by 2050. Net- NZE are achieved only under integrated pathways that combine carbon pricing
large-scale renewables
green hydrogen
nuclear power
and coal phase-down
reaching up to 99.8% emissions reductions by 2050. These pathways require higher investment
with cumulative capital needs reaching USD 774.9 billion. The analytical framework can be applied to other coal-dominated emerging economies designing NDC-aligned power sector transition strategies.