Renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) expose generators and offtakers to capture-price risk because realised revenue depends on prices during renewable production hours. Downside protection written on the production-weighted settlement price is economically relevant

but difficult to mark and hedge because the index is non-tradable and depends jointly on power prices and renewable output. This article develops a futures-anchored statistical mark-to-model and hedging framework for long-dated Asian floors embedded in renewable PPAs when renewable generation remains stochastic. The framework is not interpreted as a unique arbitrage-free price in a complete market. Instead

it isolates the hedgeable component through liquid German baseload futures and updates the remaining price-generation exposure using deterministic seasonal profiles and a vector autoregression for deseasonalised German day-ahead price and wind-generation residuals. Moment matching and a delta-method approximation yield a tractable Bachelier-style floor mark and operational futures hedge ratios. In pre-delivery backtests for the 2024 and 2025 delivery years

the stochastic hedge reduces daily residual variance by 94.7% and 89.0%

respectively compared with 69.1% and 47.9% for a deterministic-generation hedge. The results show that stochastic renewable production is a first-order input for practical risk management of renewable PPA optionality.