Marcos V.M.Siqueira, Vitor H.Ferreira, Angelo C.Colombini. Long term wind energy forecasting using machine learning techniques[J]. Global Energy Interconnection, 2025, 8(6).
DOI:
Marcos V.M.Siqueira, Vitor H.Ferreira, Angelo C.Colombini. Long term wind energy forecasting using machine learning techniques[J]. Global Energy Interconnection, 2025, 8(6). DOI: 10.1016/j.gloei.2025.05.013.
Long term wind energy forecasting using machine learning techniques
摘要
Abstract
Ensuring the reliability of wind energy as a dependable source requires overcoming challenges posed by the inherent volatility and stochastic nature of wind patterns.Long-term forecasting provides strategic advantages in managing energy generation projects
enabling the development of effective portfolio management strategies.The primary objective of this study was the development of forecasting methods to support strategic decision-making within the scope of wind energy operations
specifically targeting the Pindaí Wind Complex and its commercial dispatch.The study integrated Big Data analytics
data engineering
and computational techniques through the application of machine learning algorithms: including eXtreme Gradient Boosting
Multilayer Perceptron
Support Vector Regression
Ridge Regression
and Random Forests
aiming to generate forward-looking projections of the complex’s energy production for the year 2023.To this end
five supervised machine learning techniques were modeled and implemented.These techniques were grounded in their respective mathematical and structural formulations
and the empirical foundation for modeling was provided by historical power generation data from the Pindaí Wind Complex
combined with high-resolution realized and forecasted meteorological data retrieved via the Open-Meteo API.The models are trained using historical monthly generation data from the Pindaí Wind Complex
which has an installed capacity of 79.9 MW and is located in the northeastern region of Brazil
along with meteorological data from reanalysis models
such as air temperature
relative humidity
precipitation
surface pressure
wind speed at 10 m
wind speed at 100 m
and wind gusts.These methodologies are applied to forecast monthly wind generation for the year 2023
and the outputs are systematically compared using evaluation metrics to determine the most suitable modeling approach.The results highlight the superiority of the Multilayer Perceptron
Support Vector Regression
and eXtreme Gradient Boosting models
which achieved Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.89