Kamran Hassanpouri Baesmat, Farhad Shokoohi, Zeinab Farrokhi. SP-RF-ARIMA: A sparse random forest and ARIMA hybrid model for electric load forecasting[J]. Global energy interconnection, 2025, 8(3).
DOI:
Kamran Hassanpouri Baesmat, Farhad Shokoohi, Zeinab Farrokhi. SP-RF-ARIMA: A sparse random forest and ARIMA hybrid model for electric load forecasting[J]. Global energy interconnection, 2025, 8(3). DOI: 10.1016/j.gloei.2025.04.003.
SP-RF-ARIMA: A sparse random forest and ARIMA hybrid model for electric load forecasting
Accurate Electric Load Forecasting (ELF) is crucial for optimizing production capacity
improving operational efficiency
and managing energy resources effectively.Moreover
precise ELF contributes to a smaller environmental footprint by reducing the risks of disruption
downtime
and waste.However
with increasingly complex energy consumption patterns driven by renewable energy integration and changing consumer behaviors
no single approach has emerged as universally effective.In response
this research presents a hybrid modeling framework that combines the strengths of Random Forest (RF) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models
enhanced with advanced feature selection—Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevancy and Maximum Synergy (MRMRMS) method—to produce a sparse model.Additionally
the residual patterns are analyzed to enhance forecast accuracy.High-resolution weather data from Weather Underground and historical energy consumption data from PJM for Duke Energy Ohio and Kentucky(DEOK)are used in this application.This methodology
termed SP-RF-ARIMA
is evaluated against existing approaches;it demonstrates more than 40% reduction in mean absolute error and root mean square error compared to the second-best method.