A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

Siyu Feng; Hongtao Ren; Wenji Zhou

doi:10.1016/j.gloei.2023.08.006

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A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models

更新时间：2026-10-05

- A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models
- Global Energy Interconnection Vol. 6, Issue 4, Pages: 450-466(2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. School of Business, East China University of Science and Technology,Shanghai,PR China,200237
  2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg A,Austria,2361
  3. School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China,Beijing,PR China,100872
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.1016/j.gloei.2023.08.006
  CLC：
- Online First：31 August 2023，
  
  Published：31 August 2023
- 稿件说明：
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Siyu Feng, Hongtao Ren, Wenji Zhou. A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models[J]. Global Energy Interconnection, 2023, 6(4): 450-466.
DOI：

Siyu Feng, Hongtao Ren, Wenji Zhou. A review of uncertain factors and analytic methods in long-term energy system optimization models[J]. Global Energy Interconnection, 2023, 6(4): 450-466. DOI： 10.1016/j.gloei.2023.08.006.

摘要

Abstract

larger number of uncertain factors in energy systems influence their evolution. Owing to the complexity of energy system modeling

incorporating uncertainty analysis to energy system modeling is essential for future energy system planning and resource allocation. This study focusses on long-term energy system optimization model. The important uncertain parameters in the model are analyzed and divided into policy

economic

and technical factors. This study specifically addresses the challenges related to carbon emission reduction and energy transition. It involves collecting and organizing relevant research on uncertainty analysis of long-term energy systems. Various energy system uncertainty modeling methods and their applications from the literature are summarized in this review. Finally

important uncertainty factors and uncertainty modeling methods for long-term energy system modeling are discussed

and future research directions are proposed.

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