Zhiyuan Ma, Shining Zhang, Fangxin Hou, et al. Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission[J]. Global Energy Interconnection, 2020, 3(5): 413-422. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloei.2020.11.001.
DOI:
Zhiyuan Ma, Shining Zhang, Fangxin Hou, et al. Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission[J]. Global Energy Interconnection, 2020, 3(5): 413-422. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloei.2020.11.001.DOI:
Exploring the driving factors and their mitigation potential in global energy-related CO2 emission
摘要
Abstract
In order to quantify the contribution of the mitigation strategies
an extended Kaya identity has been proposed in this paper for decomposing the various factors that influence the CO
2
emission. To this end
we provided a detailed decomposition of the carbon intensity and energy intensity
which enables the quantification of clean energy development and electrification. The logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) has been applied to the historical data to quantify the contributions of the various factors affecting the CO
2
emissions. Further
the global energy interconnection (GEI) scenario has been introduced for providing a systematic solution to meet the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement. By combining LMDI with the scenario analysis
the mitigation potential of the various factors for CO
2
emission has been analyzed. Results from the historical data indicate that economic development and population growth contribute the most to the increase in CO
2
emissions
whereas improvement in the power generation efficiency predominantly helps in emission reduction. A numerical analysis
performed for obtaining the
projected future carbon emissions
suggests that clean energy development and electrification are the top two factors that can decrease CO
2
emissions
thus showing their great potential for mitigation in the future. Moreover
the carbon capture and storage technology serves as an important supplementary mitigation method.
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