Long-term prediction method of power grid icing base on fuzzy analysis and artificial neural network

SONG Jian1; LU Jia-zheng2; LI Bo2; ZHANG Hong-xian2; XU Xun-jian2

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Long-term prediction method of power grid icing base on fuzzy analysis and artificial neural network

更新时间：2025-11-18

- Long-term prediction method of power grid icing base on fuzzy analysis and artificial neural network
- Vol. 31, Issue 6, Pages: 7-9(2011)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 长沙理工大学
  2. 国家电网公司输变电设备防冰减灾技术重点实验室
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TM711
- Published：2011
- 稿件说明：
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[1]宋尖,陆佳政,李波,张红先,徐勋建.基于模糊识别和神经网络的电网覆冰长期预测方法[J].湖南电力,2011,31(06):7-9.

SONG Jian1, LU Jia-zheng2, LI Bo2, et al. Long-term prediction method of power grid icing base on fuzzy analysis and artificial neural network[J]. 2011, 31(6): 7-9.
[1]宋尖,陆佳政,李波,张红先,徐勋建.基于模糊识别和神经网络的电网覆冰长期预测方法[J].湖南电力,2011,31(06):7-9. DOI：

SONG Jian1, LU Jia-zheng2, LI Bo2, et al. Long-term prediction method of power grid icing base on fuzzy analysis and artificial neural network[J]. 2011, 31(6): 7-9. DOI：

摘要

对湖南省电网覆冰的历史数据和众多长期气象因子进行统计分析

提取与湖南电网覆冰相关的影响因子

并通过模糊识别方法对这些影响因子进行筛选

得到湖南电网覆冰的长期预报因子

并建立BP神经网络的湖南电网覆冰长期预报模型

对2007—2010年湖南电网的覆冰天数进行预报。在影响因子的基础上建立了传统的逐步线性回归模型

比较结果表明模糊识别和神经网络相结合的预报模型要优于逐步线性回归模型

对电网防冻融冰计划具有指导意义。

Abstract

An artificial neural network of long-term power grid icing forecasting model was established by analyzing the data of power grid icing in Hunan and meteorological factors with statistics and fuzzy method.The advantage of BP algorithm model was compared with the stepwise linear regression model.The calculation result shows that the BP algorithm model is highly effective and meaningful for the plan of anti-icing and de-icing for the power grid.

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