Short-term Lines Load Prediction of LSTM Distribution Network Based on Clustering and Trend Indicators
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Short-term Lines Load Prediction of LSTM Distribution Network Based on Clustering and Trend Indicators
Vol. 41, Issue 4, Pages: 27-33(2021)
作者机构:
1. 国网湖南省电力有限公司电力科学研究院
2. 湖南大学
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:TM715;TP183
Published:2021
稿件说明:
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DENG Wei, GUO Yixiu, LI Yong, et al. Short-term Lines Load Prediction of LSTM Distribution Network Based on Clustering and Trend Indicators[J]. 2021, 41(4): 27-33.
DOI:
DENG Wei, GUO Yixiu, LI Yong, et al. Short-term Lines Load Prediction of LSTM Distribution Network Based on Clustering and Trend Indicators[J]. 2021, 41(4): 27-33.DOI:
Short-term Lines Load Prediction of LSTM Distribution Network Based on Clustering and Trend Indicators
Aiming at the problem of poor accuracy in short-term load forecasting of distribution network lines
this paper proposes a long short-term neural network load forecasting method based on clustering and trend indicators. First
the K-Means clustering method is used to classify the distribution network stations with similar load characteristics. Then
on the basis of each cluster of load data the seasonal trend change index from historical load data is calculated as the input feature of load prediction model. Besides
the long short-term neural network model that can transmit time series information is established to train and predict each cluster load. Finally
the prediction results of each cluster load are superimposed to obtain the total line load prediction results. Based on the load data of a certain line in Hunan
the line load changes at 96 points in the feature are predicted. It is verified that the method proposed can deeply excavate the characteristics and changing trends of power load
improving the short-term prediction accuracy of distribution network line load.