Ultra-short-term power load forecasting considering intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power sources
|更新时间:2026-09-14
|
Ultra-short-term power load forecasting considering intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power sources
Vol. 63, Issue 9, (2026)
作者机构:
上海电力大学电气工程学院
作者简介:
基金信息:
DOI:
CLC:
Published:2026
稿件说明:
移动端阅览
Wen Zhuoheng, Tang Zhong. Ultra-short-term power load forecasting considering intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power sources[J]. 2026, 63(9).
DOI:
Wen Zhuoheng, Tang Zhong. Ultra-short-term power load forecasting considering intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power sources[J]. 2026, 63(9).DOI:
Ultra-short-term power load forecasting considering intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power sources
The output power of photovoltaic (PV) power sources is significantly affected by factors such as weather and light intensity
exhibiting notable intermittency and volatility. When the grid-connected capacity of PV is large
these characteristics cause the power load to exhibit non-stationary random characteristics
thereby increasing the difficulty of load forecasting. Traditional load forecasting methods neglect the intermittency and volatility of PV power sources. As a result
when dealing with complex load time series
they struggle to accurately calculate the correlation coefficients
leading to large forecasting errors. To address this issue
this paper proposes an ultra-short-term power load forecasting method that takes into account the intermittency and volatility of PV power sources. Historical power load data is collected to extract the load change patterns. Meanwhile
the real-time operating data of PV power sources is gathered to calculate the intermittency coefficient and volatility coefficient
and to clarify the influence relationship between these coefficients and the power load. Then
based on the time interval between the ultra-short-term forecasting time node and the current node
an initial forecast value of the power load is generated. The initial forecast value is corrected using the calculation results of the above-mentioned influence parameters to obtain an accurate forecast result. Performance test experiments demonstrate that under the two operating conditions of normal days and rest days
the forecast values obtained by this method are highly consistent with the actual power load values