Risk analysis and trend prediction of long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM

HOU Gong-yu; LIANG Rong; GONG Yan-fen; LIU Lin; TIAN Le

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Risk analysis and trend prediction of long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM

更新时间：2026-06-25

- Risk analysis and trend prediction of long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM
- Vol. 35, Issue S2, (2014)
- 作者机构：
  
  中国矿业大学（北京）力学与建筑工程学院,北京,100083
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：
  CLC： TD822
- Online First：12 November 2014，
  
  Published：2014
- 稿件说明：
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HOU Gong-yu, LIANG Rong, GONG Yan-fen, et al. Risk analysis and trend prediction of long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM[J]. 2014, 35(S2).
DOI：

HOU Gong-yu, LIANG Rong, GONG Yan-fen, et al. Risk analysis and trend prediction of long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM[J]. 2014, 35(S2). DOI：

摘要

对煤矿长斜井盾构机（tunnel boring machine，TBM）施工的风险因素进行了识别，建立了二层次的风险评估指标体系，并确定了风险等级分类标准，利用熵权法确定风险指标的权向量，进而建立了基于集对分析法的煤矿长斜井TBM施工同异反评估模型。在此基础上利用偏联系数的理论确定了文中五元偏联系数的计算方法，根据改进的集对势理论给出风险趋势的预测方法。利用该模型对台格庙矿区煤矿长斜井（1#、2#实验井）TBM施工风险进行了评估与趋势预测。研究表明该模型与方法在煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险分析中是有效的、实用的，可为煤矿长斜井TBM施工风险分析与预测提供一种新的途径。

Abstract

Risk factors of long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM were identified; and two-layer indicator system was established for risk assessment. Standard of risk classification was determined. Risk analysis model for long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM techniques was established on the basis of set pair analysis. Weight vector was determined by entropy weight method. Calculation method of five-element partial connection number was established and method of trend prediction was put forward by improved set pair potential theory. Trend analysis and risk evaluation of inclined wells (experiment wells #1

#2) which were constructed by TBM in Taigemiao mine area were studied by this model. The model is effective and practical for the risk analysis of mine inclined-shaft construction by TBM. As a result it provides a new way for long inclined-shaft construction in coalmine by TBM techniques

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